Predicting Economic Market Failure and Collapse in The London Housing Market and How It Compares to a Collapse in The Wider UK Housing Market – A VAR Approach
The general objective of this dissertation is to (i) test whether a collapse in the London Housing Market would affect the UK economy and (ii) see if its impact on the economy is more significant than the impact of a UK Housing Market shock. We use a Vector Auto-regressive model (VAR) to analyse how GDP, Inflation and Uncertainty might react to a shock in either the London or the UK Housing Market. To do that, we go through the Impulse Response Function (IRF) which helps us identify the sign, significance and duration of the responses of our variables to a simulated shock in one the Housing Market.
We then go through the Historical Decomposition which calculates the contribution of the housing markets to the different structural accumulated shocks of our variables; and, helps us estimate whether the results found through the IRFs make empirical sense. We expect GDP to fall, Inflation to slow down, and Uncertainty to be negatively affected. We also consider the possibility of a recession being created in the economy, if GDP growth is affected negatively for more than three quarters. Lastly, we suppose that the London Housing Market will have a more significant impact on the economy.
London Housing Market Economics Dissertation
London Housing Market Dissertation Contents
Chapter1 – Introduction
Chapter2 – Literature Review
Chapter3 – Analysis Objectives Methodology and Data Empirical Model and the Data Identification Strategy Results Impulse Response The London Case The UK Case Historical Decomposition Comparing the London case with the UK case Sensitivity Analysis Robustness Analysis Changing the order Replacing Uncertainty with other variables Dividing the sample Results prior to 1992 Results following 1992 Comparing our two sub-samples results Critics and limitations of our model
It is the biggest plunge since the 7.0% annual drop recorded in August 2009, says ONS. “House prices in London have fallen at their fastest pace since the financial crash a decade ago as the capital bears the brunt of the nationwide torpor in the property market. Amid a dearth of potential buyers, the cost of a home in London was 4.4% lower in May than a year earlier, according to the latest official snapshot of the market from the Office for National Statistics.
The ONS said it was the biggest drop in London prices since the 7.0% annual fall recorded in August 2009 – a period that included the near-meltdown of the global banking system in the autumn of 2008” (The Guardian, 2019).
UK House Price Index Dissertation
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Currency crises are rapid and unpredictable decline in the value of the currency of a nation. The crises are often more severe if the country involved uses a fixed exchange rate than if the country has a flexible exchange rate since the monetary authority will be forced to abandon the fixed rate. Currency crises usually increase by selling pressure of a currency and can only be remedied through devaluation or establishing a new exchange rate at a sufficiently depreciated level. Several countries have experienced currency crises which are caused by different factors. One of the most severe currency crisis occurred in Mexico between 1994 and 1995. The crises led to huge massive economic crises that forced the Mexican government to seek assistance from the United States and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (Carbaugh, 2016). The essay herein will, therefore, examine the sources of currency crises in Mexico and the specific resolution and also including some other countries that have experienced currency crisis such as Russia and Turkey.
Mexico Currency Crisis (1994-1995)
Before the 1994 Mexico currency crises, the central bank of Mexico maintained the value of peso within a depreciated band of four percent every year against the U.S. dollar. In 1994, the Central bank decided to issue debt that is linked to the US dollar as a way to reduce interest rates on debts. The debts kept rising until it exceeded the central bank’s falling foreign exchange reserves which led to the currency crises. Despite the government responding by devaluing the currency by 15 percent, the crises continued until 1995. The continued selling pressure on the currency forced the monetary authorities to withdraw support in foreign exchange markets as foreign reserves of the Bank of Mexico fell. Although the severity of the Mexican currency crisis in 1994 was unprecedented, Mexico’s history on exchange rate policy has been characterized by the duration of both fixed exchange rate and flexible exchange rates (Ötker et al., 1995). The devaluation registered by Mexico is the largest depreciation of the currency of a country within one year.
When the currency crises occurred, there was little information about the possibility of its occurrence. The crises were somehow similar to the debt crisis that occurred between 1982 and 1983. Several assessments have been conducted to establish the main cause of the situation, and most of them reveal that it was contributed by the exchange rate policy of Mexican monetary authorities. The other cause identified through the assessment is the excessive use of short maturity tesobonos for deficit financing. Tesobonos is a peso-dominated bond which is issued by the government of Mexico and the coupons associated with it are indexed to the United States dollar. The Mexican government issued the tesobonos as a way to convince the international investors to buy Mexican debt that is exempted from risks associated with currency exchange. The investors are therefore immune to the effects of changes in the dollar value of the peso between the period of purchase and redemption. The risk associated with the change of currency is therefore carried by the Mexican government and not the investors. For instance, if the value of peso depreciated during the period of purchase and redemption, the Mexican government and the taxpayers would be liable for the losses.
According to the international economic statistics that were available before the crises, the Mexican government had the chance to evade the crises if the monetary authorities had information about the actual state of Mexican reserves. At the beginning of 1994, the Mexican reserves were at around $25 billion, but towards the ends of the year, the reserves had reduced to about $5 billion (Tavlas, 1997). The existing reserves were insufficient to meet the existing financial obligations. Furthermore, a default was considered to be a perilous move for the stability of the international financial markets. The deficit, therefore, led to the currency crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed to provide the Mexican authorities with information about the decline in the reserves. Following the crisis, the IMF has resolved to closely monitor the financial reserves of developing countries to avert the occurrence of a currency crisis. The IMF has also resorted to providing early warning indicators to avoid the occurrence of a currency crisis in any nation.
Currency Crisis
Mexico has a great deal of the forms of direct capital investment in 1994, but it was not sufficient. The government was receiving massive amounts of money through stock-brokers who were motivated by the quick returns which were about 20 percent annually. The investment bankers and the stock-brokers were ready to exit Mexico as soon as the crisis begun thereby increasing the magnitude of economic damage. The troubles of Mexico extended from insufficient reserves, inability to service the debts, and incapability to generate profits on the equity capital. The crises also contributed to other social and political problems such as the Chiaspas rebellion at the beginning of 1994 (Tavlas, 1997). The political issues made the foreign investors take their money out of Mexico thereby broadening the implications of the crisis. The implications of the crises forced the Mexican government to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund and the United States government.
According to Gil-Diaz (1998), the currency crisis in Mexico was contributed by the execution of the privation of the public enterprises and the deregulation of the Mexican banking sector. He concluded that the confiscation of the banking sector followed by subsequent privatization in 1991-1992 is the cause of the currency crisis. The Mexican monetary authorities made the deregulation of the banking sector without due consideration about the implications that it would have on the federal reserves. The decision later resulted in an increase in unpaid debts to the banks. The currency was then triggered by the Mexican government in 1994 because of the economic decisions. The crisis was determined by the fragility of the banking system and not the macroeconomic factors as indicators by other researchers. Three years before the crisis, the Mexican peso was overvalued which also resulted in economic pressure. The monetary policy that was passed by the Mexican authorities was inappropriate because the Federal Reserve was raising the interest rate while the Bank of Mexico maintained the existing rates. It, therefore, made the investors leave increasing pressure on the reserves.
The Mexican currency crisis had a regional effect through a contagion in various markets such as Brazil, Argentina, Asia, and Thailand; the effect was referred to as the “Tequila effect.” The crisis affected both the stock market and the foreign exchange market. Only the countries that had high economic fundamentals were exempted from the effects of the crisis. The Mexican government responded to the adverse situation by requesting for loans from different countries and international bodies among them being the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank for International Settlements. In the end, Mexican government managed to secure a loan totaling to $50billion that was used to meet the financial obligations. However, the move by the government to ask for loans received criticism from some of the European authorities that considered the move to be a moral hazard.
The Mexican government continued to resolve the crisis by implementing a severe adjustment program. Some of the strategies in the program included reducing the public spending, increasing the value added tax from 10 percent to 15 percent, and raising the prices of all the public goods and services. The program worsened the situation in Mexico as the Gross Domestic Product dropped by 6.5 percent and inflation increased by 50 percent. Furthermore, the banking system collapsed thereby forcing the government to use public funds in the rescue. The government also changed the exchange rate from fixed to flexible. Later, a law was passed that would only allow the government budget to be approved if the deficit is zero to prevent further lending. The initiative had positive implications in the GDP because of the increased exports of products to the United States. Through the Banking Fund for the Protection of Savings, the government was able to bail out the banking system that had collapsed. Years later, the government decided to sell the Mexican banks to the international financial groups. Presently, there is only one Mexican bank as foreign investors own the rest.
One of the international institutions that played a role in rescuing Mexico was the International Monetary Fund. The IMF is responsible for providing loans to nations that are in financial deficit. The loans are usually issued following an agreement between the nation and IMF. The IMF responded to the crisis by providing a loan to the Mexican government through the U.S Treasury as a way to protect the foreign banks and other existing financial institutions. The various government also played a vital role in rescuing the currency crisis among them being the United States and Canada. The U.S. has had a long outstanding relationship with Mexico, and it is also the largest trading partner. Although the Federal Service Bank contributed to the crisis by increasing the interest rate, the United States assisted the Mexican government with loans to end the crisis. On the other hand, Canadian government through the North American Framework Agreement (NAFA) contributed funds beyond what had been collected at the time of occurrence of the crisis.
Russia Currency Crisis (1998)
Russia was severely hit by a currency crisis in 1998 that left both the economic and financial system in crisis. According to Gerry & Li (2002), the financial crisis begun in August 1997 when the Russian government defaulted on its domestic financial and economic systems. The duration was characterized by an increase in inflation, high levels of unemployment, and shanking of the economy. Although the crisis lasted for a short period, Russian who was living in the urban areas were severely hit. Globalization and uncontrolled speculation in the financial markets is one of the leading contributors to a currency crisis in the developing countries. The rise in the amount of capital that is flowing in the international financial systems as a result of globalization has had negative impacts on the economies of different countries. The crisis is caused by failures of certain sectors of the economy in the countries involved which later spreads to other countries through contagion and spill-over effects. For instance, the Asian currency crisis spread through contagion and spillovers to other countries such as Thailand in 1997 and later to Russia in 1998. Therefore, Asia is one of the causes of the Russian crisis although research shows that there is a little linkage between the crises that hit the two countries.
The Russian crisis can also be attributed to both political and economic factors. The Russian government triggered the crisis by selling the GKOs and OFZs which denominated debt instruments and coupon bonds after the fall of USSR. The Russian government then started experiencing problems that had negative implications on both the financial and the economic systems. The Russian government responded by converting the Ruble dominated instruments into US dollar-dominated Eurobonds to alleviate the risks involved. The Russian government continued borrowing from external sources that later raised concerns of its default exposure as foreign investors decided to cut their connection with the Russian debt, equity, and commodity market because of lack of confidence. The withdrawal of investors from Russia economy reduced the government capability to finance the debts thereby causing a currency crisis. According to the reports provided by the Economic Intelligence Unit (1998) in 1998, 30 percent of the Russian expenditure was used to service the short-term debts that the government had secured from other governments and international institutions. Therefore, high levels of debts are one of the causes of a currency crisis in Russia.
Russian Currency crisis was also caused nu the fall in the value of the Rule, weak banking system, and the reduction in the level of the foreign reserves. The Russian government tried to remedy the situation through the Central Bank by pegging the Russian Ruble to the US dollar with a narrow band. Several other studies have been conducted to establish the causes of the Russian financial crisis which had serious consequences to the economic and financial systems of other countries such as Turkey, Ukraine, and Moldova. The devaluation of the Russian Ruble also had negative implications on the Russia banks regarding assets and liabilities. There was also a reduction in the foreign exchange contracts because of the increase in the value of liabilities. Furthermore, the Russian government debts such as bonds and treasury bills that were used assets were reduced to worthless assets because of the defaults. As a result, most banks were closed which made a majority of the Russians to lose their savings. Lastly, the crisis caused political fallouts and frequent demonstrations of workers who were demanding a pay rise (Margolin, 2000).
The Russian currency crisis was resolved after intervention by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which has the mandate of monitoring the economic and development policies enacted by various nations. The other responsibilities of the international body are to lend money to countries that are experiencing financial challenges and provision of technical assistance regarding research and training to countries that are in need. The IMF intervened in the Russian crisis by lending money that would help the government to escape the financial collapse. Despite the IMF lending money to the Russian government, the situation was already out of control since the money could only be used to take care of the short-term debts but not offer a permanent solution to the difficult situation.
For a country to survive a financial crisis, it requires a plan for the aid to be used in a manner that will help escape the situation. It is an excellent idea for the international body to issue financial aid, but the Russian government was not prepared to use the funds to evade the crisis. The government had lost control of the situation, and therefore it required more than financial aid to help the situations. The Russian government responded by coming up with a plan that would ensure the crisis does not happen again. The funds issued by the IMF were used in rescuing the banking system which plays a vital role in maintaining economic growth in a nation.
Conclusion
A currency crisis is one of the challenges that has been experienced by several countries especially the developing countries. Among the countries that have been affected by currency crisis include Mexico between 1994 and 1995, Russia in 1998, and Thailand in 1997. The crisis has severe implications on the economic and financial systems of an economy. The causes of the crisis vary from one nation to another, for instance, the crisis in Mexico was caused by reducing the level of Federal Reserve while excessive borrowing caused the Russian crisis. Once the countries are caught in such difficult situations, it the responsibility of the international bodies and other government to assist in escaping the situation. International Monetary Fund played a vital role in helping the above-discussed countries escape the harsh implication of currency crisis. The United States and Canada through the North American Framework Agreement (NAFA) assisted Mexico financial aid in helping rescue the situation.
References
Carbaugh, R. (2016). International Economics. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.
Economist Intelligence Unit (1998). Russia: Country Report. London. pp. 42.
Gery, C. J. & Li, C. A. 2002. Vulnerability to welfare change during economic shocks: evidence from the 1998 Russian Crisis. Working Paper. University of Essex, Department of Economics, Discussion Papers.
Gil-Díaz, F. (1998). The Origin of Mexico’s 1994 Financial Crisis. Cato Journal, 17 (3), pp. 303-313.
Margolin, R. (2000). The Russian Financial Crisis: from craze to crash. The Stern Journal, New York University.
Ötker, I., Pazarbaşioğlu, C., International Monetary Fund, & International Monetary Fund. (1995). Speculative attacks and currency crisis: The Mexican experience. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, Treasurer’s Dept. and Monetary and Exchange Affairs Dept.
Tavlas, G. S. (1997). The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses. Boston, MA: Springer US.
Did you find any useful knowledge relating to currency crises in this post? What are the key facts that grabbed your attention? Let us know in the comments. Thank you.
Economics models are false and so government should ignore their predictions. Explain, discuss and evaluate the accuracy of this statement.
Price Elasticity – Economics models are the tools which economists use to predict future economic developments by measuring past relationships among variables such as household income, consumer spending, employment, interest rates, tax rates etc. and forecasting how changes in some of these variables will affect other variables. An economic model is said to be complete if it can accurately forecast many of the variables future course, however, no economic model can be complete in true sense. There are several forces outside the model that affect the calculation and forecasting of variables. There are two ways by which these outside factors affect the forecasting and economic predictions. The input errors are concerned with inaccurate assumption of outside variables and model errors which explains the deviation of the equation of economic model from the assumption to the actual. Hence, it can be said that economic models are subjective approximations of reality and are designed to explain the observation. Therefore, the model’s predictions should be moderated so that it can accommodate the effect of random data variables (Deming, 2000).
Many researchers believe that economic theories and models simply provide ways to look at systems and determine how changes in variables affect the overall outcome. It also explains advantages and disadvantages of various economic models and systems. However, predictions and subsequent policy decisions are made after following value judgement of policymakers or the government. Therefore, the government should view at economic model only as a framework which provide insight of a contextual theory. More empirical evidence and real life economic parameters should be considered while making policy decisions based on economic predictions (Godley & Lavoie, 2006).
No economic model can perfectly predict the real future. A good example of the economic model’s failure is to predict the reasons for the global financial crisis of 2008. The prevailing economic model was deficient to provide sufficient attention towards the relationship between demands, wealth, and excessive financial risk taking. There were considerable research which had been conducted to uncover the same and also a new behavioural equation was added to the existing economic models. The true test of the new model will happen when it will effectively flag financial risk levels that would need a precautionary policy change. This is an ongoing process which consist of constructing, testing, and revising models and outside forces so that economists and policymakers can predict the future course of economy (Taylor, 2009).
Government neither can overlook economic models’ forecasts nor make predictions completely based on them. It has also been seen that economists seem to put aside political factors outside their equation. Politics among other outside factors is the most important factor that helps to determine the outcome of economic policy. In view of these analysis, it is suggested to use structural models which makes several “what if” economic analysis on several input combinations. In this way, the policymakers would have substantial information on various numerical variables and the forecast can be recalculated whenever required (Diermeier, Eraslan & Merlo, 2003).
Identify estimates of the price elasticity of demand for at least three different products
The “law of demand” suggests that the higher the price of a good, the lesser demand from consumers. This is the fundamental law of all economic models to predict the economic forecasts. In order to predict consumer behaviour in more details, economists use several techniques which evaluate the sensitivity of consumers’ demands with respect to changes in price. The most commonly used technique is known as “price elasticity of demand”. In simple terms, it is the proportionate change in demand given a change in price. For example, if a one unit decline in the price of a product produces a one unit increase in demand for that product, the price elasticity of demand is said to be one (Green, Malpezzi & Mayo, 2005).
Price Elasticity
Numerous studies suggest that the majority of consumer goods and services falls in the price elasticity of between .5 and 1.5. Essential products to everyday living, which have fewer substitutes, typically have lower elasticity for example, staple foods. Since, staples such as cereals are necessities in the diet, and are usually cheaper so that people safeguard their income for spending on such essentials when prices increase. Furthermore, lower income households tend to have higher price elasticity for food items than high income households. As food products occupies a large share of total income in these households, price changes have a substantial impact on the allocation of budget. On the other hand, magnitude of the elasticity for animal source foods such as fish, meat and dairy are higher than staple cereals as these are considered as luxury food items and there are always many substitutes available for consumption of these food choices (Andreyeva, Long & Brownell, 2010).
Goods with many substitutes, or are considered luxuries as are not essential, or whose purchase can be easily postponed, have higher elasticity. For example, the demand of automobile is considered as elastic as there are three kind of substitution takes place. In response of a unit price change, consumer of a new car can delay the purchase, or can choose to purchase another category of car or chose not to buy a new car and use another mode of transport. Furthermore, in case of buying a particular model of car, it would be highly elastic demand as there will be a lot of substitutes. On the other hand, demand for cars in rural areas would be inelastic over the longer run. Because there are very few alternative mode of transports available (Parry, Walls & Harrington, 2007).
Another example can be taken from health care services, where the demand for health care expenditure is found to be price inelastic. A range of price elasticity estimates it to be -0.17, which means that a one unit increase in the price of health care will lead to a 0.17 unit reduction in health care expenditures. Moreover, the demand for health care is also found to be income inelastic as it is in the range of 0 to 0.2. The positive sign of the elasticity suggests that there will be increase for health care demand as income increases, however the low magnitude of the elasticity indicates that the demand response would be relatively very small (Duarte, 2012).
Andreyeva, T., Long, M. W., & Brownell, K. D. (2010). The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food. American journal of public health, 100(2), 216-222.
Deming, W. E. (2000). The new economics: for industry, government, education. MIT press.
Diermeier, D., Eraslan, H., & Merlo, A. (2003). A structural model of government formation. Econometrica, 71(1), 27-70.
Duarte, F. (2012). Price elasticity of expenditure across health care services. Journal of health economics, 31(6), 824-841.
Godley, W., & Lavoie, M. (2006). Monetary economics: an integrated approach to credit, money, income, production and wealth. Springer.
Green, R. K., Malpezzi, S., & Mayo, S. K. (2005). Metropolitan-specific estimates of the price elasticity of supply of housing, and their sources. The American Economic Review, 95(2), 334-339.
Parry, I. W., Walls, M., & Harrington, W. (2007). Automobile externalities and policies. Journal of economic literature, 45(2), 373-399.
Taylor, J. B. (2009). The financial crisis and the policy responses: An empirical analysis of what went wrong (No. w14631). National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Discuss the macroeconomic effects of negative official interest rates. What relevance, if any, do the macroeconomic models have in explaining this phenomenon and predicting its likely consequences?
The negative interest rate is a recent phenomenon emerged from the global financial crisis in 2008. The negative official interest rate has become worldwide phenomenon and a part of policy initiatives by central banks around the world (Collignon, 2012) to deal with the problems of low rate of economic growth, massive unemployment and disinflation by injecting some easy money in search of some viable solution for economic recovery.
The interest rate is most crucial variable for financial industry as it has widespread effects on share prices, exchange rate and income distribution between exporting firms and consumers. IMF (2012) has mentioned the negative effects on insurance and savings in form of pension funds and financial stability is threatened in case of persistent negative interest rates. This policy can have negative consequences for growth and independence of central banks in the hands of irresponsible government decisions (White, 2012).
Money market suffers as important intermediaries like money market funds could be compelled out of business because of lost profitability that shift the interest of investors to more profitable market oriented business.
The consumers also suffer from negative interest rate in form of high global commodity prices. The reason behind this phenomenon is the changing interest and speculative behaviour of investors into high yielding assets like oil and food. The increased inflation rate results in lower purchasing power of consumers that hindered the economic recovery (Belke et al., 2010).
The negative interest rate dampen saving as it encourage people to spend more rather to save, this has long term negative effects for the people who are dependent on interest income. On the other hand the savings are not properly used for investment because of deteriorating investment efficiency.
The benefit of low interest rate includes the increasing capacity of banks to lend as a major problem the banks faced during the financial crisis was undercapitalization that restricted their capacity to make loans for recovery.
Negative Interest Rates
The negative interest rate can increase the wealth of households in form of higher asset prices and lower the capital cost for making investments but at the same time it gives rise to additional borrowing that increases the debt levels.
Negative interest rates can be explained in terms of Keynes theory of interest rate and theory of speculative demand for money. According to Keynes the equilibrium interest rate is the rate that equates money supply and money demand. Keynes began by asking “why an individual would hold any money above the needed for transaction and precautionary motives when bonds pay interest and money does not.” Keynes believed that such an additional demand for money exists because of uncertainty about future interest rates and the relationship between changes in the interest rate and the price of bonds. As there is an inverse relation between bond price and interest rate, Keynes speculative demand for money is the money held in anticipation of a fall in bond prices and a rise in interest rates (Froyen, 2005).
Here we observe a phenomenon of liquidity trap. It is the situation at a very low interest rate where the speculative demand for money schedule becomes nearly horizontal as shown in figure.
One implication of negative interest rates could be the liquidity trap which can lead to deep recession with deflation. It can be explained with the help of an example. In the 1990s, the interest rate in Japan was the lowest in the world and in 1998 the interest rate on Japanese six month treasury bills turned slightly negative. In such a situation Japan experienced prolonged recession accompanied by deflation which is the negative inflation rate (Mishkin, 2007). Usually it is believed that the low interest rates are a good thing because they make borrowing cheaper. But the case of Japan shows that low and negative interest rates were a sign that Japanese economy was in real trouble with falling prices and contracting economy.
Secondly, it is not attractive for the lenders to lend below 0%, as that will guarantee a loss, and a bank offering a negative deposit rate will find few takers, as savers will instead hold cash.
Countries like Denmark and Sweden introduced negative interest rates in recent years on temporary basis. In Denmark the purpose of adopting negative interest rate was to limit an unwanted rise in its currency. For this they moved to negative deposit rates. It did not cause any financial meltdown nor did it cause any noticeable change in the interest rate charged by banks for bank loans. Recently, European Central Bank has adopted the negative interest rates of -0.1% on Eurozone banks to encourage them to lend to small firms rather than to hoard cash. It is meant to boost the economy by increasing the lending to consumers and businesses.
Consequences of adopting Negative Interest Rates
This development can have unpredictable consequences. Those consequences may include the possibility that banks will pass on to customers the costs for depositing money with the ECB.
Also the negative return on keeping funds with the central bank might encourage banks to invest in riskier assets to secure a return.
As an alternative investment, banks may increase their purchases of government bonds and it would have potentially serious consequences if banks are holding bonds to such an extent that government borrowing costs are artificially low. If a financial shock occurs, the banks and governments could find themselves so intertwined and interdependent that they drag each other and the economy down.
References
Belke, A., Bordon, I. G., & Hendricks, T. W. (2010) ‘Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices–a Co-integrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries’. Applied Financial Economics, 20(3), 227-242.
Collignon, S. (2012) ‘Fiscal policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe’. International Economic Review, 53(2), 539-567.
International Monetary Fund Staff (2011) ‘Global Financial Stability Report: Durable Financial Stability: Getting There from Here’. International Monetary Fund.
Mishkin, F. S. (2007) The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Market. (sixth ed.). Pearson Education.
White, W.R. (2012) ‘Ultra Easy Monetary Policy and the Law of Unintended Consequences; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’. Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute.
Writing an economics dissertation can prove to be a tough task and quality economics dissertation topics are hard to come by. The dissertation in hand allows you to investigate your ability for, and interest in doing economic research. Economics is not the easiest of subjects but it is one of the most interesting. Economics touches nearly every aspect of business and economic theory has been taught for centuries. Economics is seen as the analysis of production, consumption, distribution of wealth and allocation of limited resources to satisfy the needs of people and business. Nowadays, economics extends across national boundaries in the form of international business and global fiscal policy; this is noticeable with the formation of the European Union and flow of international finance.
Your economics dissertation is likely to be the biggest project you undertake at university or college. It can consist of anything between 10,000 to 15,000 words for a typical undergraduate dissertation and will involve in-depth research, time and dedication, you must organize your own time effectively in order to make it a success and set realistic goals. Here we have given a few thoughts and some advice on planning, researching and writing your dissertation. You will see a list of economics dissertation topics further on in this post.
Economics Dissertation Topics
Before you begin your economics dissertation, you must decide on an appropriate economics dissertation topic and title. Your dissertation should focus on a specific issue try to avoid generalizing as you may write a fragmented and disjointed piece of research. The topic should be interesting, something that can uphold in-depth research.
Choosing an economics dissertation topic and getting started
What is your topic question?
Do you have adequate background research?
Stay focused on it
In previous posts, I always stress to keep the research up to date and to engage the reader. There is no real benefit in writing an economics dissertation on outdated theory or defunct policy.
Choose a topic from an area you are familiar and comfortable writing about. Remember that this is a large project that will keep you engaged for most of your final year. It is advisable to revisit topics you have already covered on your degree as this may lead you to elaborate and base your dissertation on a project you have already completed. Writing your economics dissertation will be the ideal opportunity for you to use your intellect, skills, creativity, and economics training.
Economics Dissertation Advice
For empirical papers: Where will you get your data? How will it help answer your question?
What statistical techniques will you be able to use? Will you be able to identify causation or only correlation?
Theory papers typically are not just informal discussions. They tend to involve more mathematics than empirical ones, not less.
If you are having trouble understanding a topic, a good place to start is to look in several relevant textbooks to see how they handle it.
Economics is a specialized and scientific subject that involves equations, mathematics, figures and tables, economic theory is often underpinned by statistics and you need to be mindful of this. The field of economics differs vastly from other business subjects such as marketing, strategy and information management. These subject areas tend not to rely heavily on statistics or equations to strengthen findings and recommendations.
Below is a list of economics dissertation topics that will help you
I hope you have benefited from reading this post. Feel free to add comments or suggests that I may have left out. These will be considered and added to this post.
