Community Economic Development

Community Economic Development

Title: Community Economic Development. Effective public administration is key to promoting community economic development. Community economic development is term used to describe collective action by members of a particular community to generate common solutions to their economic problems. Such initiatives may involve both small and large groups (Green & Haines, 2012). Public administration on the other hand refers to civic leadership of community affairs that is held directly responsible for executive roles (Calabrò & Della Spina, 2014). Public administration aims at promoting respect and contributing to the enhancement of the worth, dignity, and potential of members of the public. Effective public administration enhances the success of community economic development initiatives.

The model of the community development process, also often referred to as the asset model of development provides mechanisms to manage community based and development infrastructure. It is mainly concerned with the management of human resources (Patterson, Silverman, Yin, & Wu, 2016). It provides processes and practices that are aimed at promoting the effective and efficient management of human capacity in public service (Loh & Norton, 2015). The model also champions the making of human resource management (HRM) decisions that are accurate, fair, transparent, and free from political influence (Green & Haines, 2012). There are six major components of the model of the community development process. These include strategic planning, organizational design and classification, competency profile development, resourcing, learning, development, and certification, and leadership development.

Strategic planning requires that the business needs of a community be identified first before any investments are made. The community economic development program that is developed should target these gaps and needs. Strategic planning requires that all decisions be made based on existing facts (Christens & Inzeo, 2015). As a community developer, one should engage members of the public to determine their needs and work with them to develop solutions that best satisfy these needs. For example, the needs of an urban community vary from those of a rural society. Subsequently, programs to be rolled out in the two areas should vary to some extent.

Organizational design and classification is the second component of the model. It requires that standardized services and products be developed with the aim of providing an integrated and consistent approach to staffing. Subsequently, well defined and or organized job positions and streams are developed (Green & Haines, 2012). In community development, organizational design and classification is important since it helps in the division of work. Different persons are given specific responsibilities (Majee, Goodman, Reed Adams, & Keller, 2017). For example, a engineer working in a community development project should have clearly defined responsibilities.

Community Economic Development
Community Economic Development

Competence profile development is the third component of the model. It champions the development of competency based products that help define and support job success. As such, public administration managers are in a position to use profiles for the purposes of staffing (Majee et al., 2017). At the same time, employees are in a position to identify that which is required of them for them to get promotions (Calabrò & Della Spina, 2014). A community developer should be involved in the designing of learning programs fill the skill and knowledge gaps of the human resources. These programs should target all fields.

The fourth component of the model is resourcing. It involves the launching of collective recruitment and staffing programs. This helps increase access to qualified human resources. At the same time, it ensures that vacant positions are filled in a quick, effective, and efficient manner (Green & Haines, 2012). The model enables community developers to understand the need to have fully staffed team at all times. For example, it would be not make sense to run a community development program whose agenda is housing without an architect, an engineer, and an accountant.

Learning, development, and certification is the fifth component of the model. It develops programs that are aimed at enhancing the skills and capabilities of human resources (Patterson et al., 2016). It ensures that employees have access to all the programs and tools they need to improve their competencies and skills (Christens & Inzeo, 2015). As such, they are in a position to advance in their careers. A community developer must understand that change is inevitable. As such, they must always seek to update the skills and knowledge of their teams.

The last component of the model is leadership development. It involves expanding the capacity of individuals to enable them perform leadership roles (Patterson et al., 2016). In community development, this is important since it provides persons with the right attitudes and abilities to influence others positively (Calabrò & Della Spina, 2014). A community developer must understand the need to create strong leadership. They must mentor leaders who are to guide the implementation and maintenance of community based project (Majee et al., 2017). This is important to ensure the sustainability of these community economic development programs.

Zoning and Community Economic Development

Zoning and comprehensive planning continue to be important tools for community development. Zoning is a development regulation tool. It involves the division of the existing land into zones. Each zone is dedicated to a specific purpose. In community development, zoning is key in ensuring that the goals of the comprehensive plan are implemented in an effective and efficient manner (Green & Haines, 2012). Public administrators must be keen to ensure that zoning guidelines are adhered to. Through zoning, developers can improve their communities by encouraging the use of the existing land resources in a sustainable manner (Loh & Norton, 2015). Zoning promotes sustainability of development programs since it allocates land resources for all the needs of a community. For example, zoning ensures that members of a community have adequate land for residential, farming, and economic purposes.

Comprehensive planning is the process through which the goals and aspirations of a community are determined. It results in the development of a comprehensive plan. In community development, a comprehensive plan dictates public policy and in matters land use, housing, recreation, public utilities, and transportation (Green & Haines, 2012). Comprehensive plans may cover either a small or large geographical area (Loh & Norton, 2015). As a developer, one can use comprehensive planning to improve their communities by assessing their needs and working with them to seek appropriate and sustainable solutions (Christens & Inzeo, 2015). A developer must be keen to involve all members of a community in the planning process. This ensures that their comprehensive plan created has the support of all members of the community. Subsequently, the implementation process tends to be easy.

References

Calabrò, F., & Della Spina, L. (2014). The cultural and environmental resources for sustainable development of rural areas in economically disadvantaged contexts-economic-appraisals issues of a model of management for the valorisation of public assets. Advanced Materials Research, 869(1), 43-48.

Christens, B. D., & Inzeo, P. T. (2015). Widening the view: situating collective impact among frameworks for community-led change. Community Development46(4), 420-435.

Green, G. P., & Haines, A. (2012). Asset building and community development (3rd edn.). Newbury, CA: Sage Publications.

Loh, C. G., & Norton, R. K. (2015). Planning consultants’ influence on local comprehensive plans. Journal of Planning Education and Research35(2), 199-208.

Majee, W., Goodman, L., Reed Adams, J., & Keller, K. (2017). The We-Lead Model for Bridging the Low-Income Community Leadership Skills-Practice Gap. Journal of Community Practice, 3(1), 1-12.

Patterson, K. L., Silverman, R. M., Yin, L., & Wu, L. (2016). Neighborhoods of Opportunity: Developing an Operational Definition for Planning and Policy Implementation. Journal of Public Management & Social Policy22(3), 143.

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Airbnb Economic Space Project

Airbnb as an Economic Space

Title: Airbnb as an economic space. An economic space is either physical or non-physical system that creates a model through which people can design and interact with financial values. There are numerous platforms that can be classified as economic spaces including social websites such as Airbnb and Facebook. These platforms create spaces for people to gather and interact. Basically, the interaction of individuals within an economic space is determined by its structure and design. Each economic space has specific behaviors and traits associated with the social systems it forms. Airbnb has numerous benefits as an economic space because of its scale, allowing people to list and book accommodation from any part of the world.

Airbnb as an Economic Space

Airbnb is platform that allows peers to list and reserve housing around the world. Individuals with vacant rooms are allowed to register on Airbnb as hosts in order to list their properties. Similarly, guests enroll on the platform as hosts and are permitted to verify their identity using their online profiles or government-issued documents before they are allocated an accommodation. The platform is accessible through mobile application and websites. Recently, I interacted with Airbnb as a guest and experienced the numerous benefits associated with the space. It is easier, cheaper, and accessible from every part of the world. The listed properties are of diverse sizes and prices and are in locations that allow tourists to stay with the local people during their travel period. Airbnb is global in terms of scale because like many internet-based platforms, it is utilized by a global audience (Coe, Kelly, & Yeung, n.d.). Guests have the option of choosing the listing based on diverse criteria such as region, city, price, date, and features of property.

Nonetheless, the platform can be categorized into several scales that include a global, regional, national, urban, and local scale. One aspect of the platform that should be noted is that it is operated from a particular region although it is global. The listing of the products occurs from any place in the globe and hosts can easily update if their space is already booked.

Airbnb Economic Space
Airbnb Economic Space

Airbnb is fascinating because complementary economic activities are occurring concurrently at multiple scales (Coe, Kelly, & Yeung, n.d.). The accommodation services enabled by Airbnb are part of the sharing economy where users share assets and services using digital intermediaries. The difference between Airbnb and the traditional accommodation services is in the way of delivering these services. Because of the unique model utilized by Airbnb, there are numerous advantages for the hosts, the guests, and the populations at local levels. While searching for a suitable accommodation based on the available budget, I interacted with numerous hosts and the diverse properties available to clients across the globe. Basically, the actions of both the guests and hosts are shaped by the design of the platform, with each having a personalized interface to mediate the interactions.

Airbnb Interventions

Regarding interventions aided by Airbnb, it is not easier to isolate one scale of the system because the processes at a particular scale depend on the activities at another scale. The decisions that lead to the success of the business model are made at different levels of the systems. In this context, the human effort is augmented by digital structures. Each of the consumers is beneficiaries of the knowledge invested in the web platform. In the contemporary economic spaces, technology is the main tool to enhance the efficiency of the everyday activities. However, it is apparent that Airbnb platform does not overshadow the essence of ordinary work in the physical sense.

The design of the platform reveals what is an economic space and what it can do. Airbnb is a hallmark of economic globalization that braved the traditional methods of looking for accommodation. Consumers across the globe can choose from a variety of available spaces. Airbnb is a unique form of economic geography that has rationalized the tourism and travel industry (Walker, n.d.).  Essentially, the analysis of Airbnb as an economic space is not confined in a singular scale but rather understanding that different scales are performing and active at the same time. When the platform is considered in one scale, we create a restricted and ambiguous understanding of the digital model used (Coe, Kelly, & Yeung, n.d.).

Conclusion

Airbnb is popular because it allows efficient and easier listing of properties that serve a global clientele. It is a digital system that allows people to undertake economic activities in a worldwide scale. There are numerous economic benefits associated with Airbnb because of the several scales that allow economic activities at the individual, local, national, and international level. The platform can be accessed through the website or mobile application and lists properties of diverse features, prices, and location. At all scale levels, the activities occur simultaneously. Listing and booking of accommodation occurs from any part of the world and the activities of one scale depend on the performance of the other. Airbnb is different from the traditional accommodation services because it offers benefits to people at different scales of the economic hierarchy simultaneously.

References

Coe, N. M., Kelly, P. F., & Yeung, H. W.-C. (n.d.). Thinking geographically. In Conceptual Foundations.

Walker, R. A. (n.d.). The geography of production.

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Currency Crisis Cause and Resolution

Currency Crisis

Currency crises are rapid and unpredictable decline in the value of the currency of a nation. The crises are often more severe if the country involved uses a fixed exchange rate than if the country has a flexible exchange rate since the monetary authority will be forced to abandon the fixed rate. Currency crises usually increase by selling pressure of a currency and can only be remedied through devaluation or establishing a new exchange rate at a sufficiently depreciated level. Several countries have experienced currency crises which are caused by different factors. One of the most severe currency crisis occurred in Mexico between 1994 and 1995. The crises led to huge massive economic crises that forced the Mexican government to seek assistance from the United States and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (Carbaugh, 2016). The essay herein will, therefore, examine the sources of currency crises in Mexico and the specific resolution and also including some other countries that have experienced currency crisis such as Russia and Turkey.

Mexico Currency Crisis (1994-1995)

Before the 1994 Mexico currency crises, the central bank of Mexico maintained the value of peso within a depreciated band of four percent every year against the U.S. dollar. In 1994, the Central bank decided to issue debt that is linked to the US dollar as a way to reduce interest rates on debts. The debts kept rising until it exceeded the central bank’s falling foreign exchange reserves which led to the currency crises. Despite the government responding by devaluing the currency by 15 percent, the crises continued until 1995. The continued selling pressure on the currency forced the monetary authorities to withdraw support in foreign exchange markets as foreign reserves of the Bank of Mexico fell. Although the severity of the Mexican currency crisis in 1994 was unprecedented, Mexico’s history on exchange rate policy has been characterized by the duration of both fixed exchange rate and flexible exchange rates (Ötker et al., 1995). The devaluation registered by Mexico is the largest depreciation of the currency of a country within one year.

When the currency crises occurred, there was little information about the possibility of its occurrence. The crises were somehow similar to the debt crisis that occurred between 1982 and 1983. Several assessments have been conducted to establish the main cause of the situation, and most of them reveal that it was contributed by the exchange rate policy of Mexican monetary authorities. The other cause identified through the assessment is the excessive use of short maturity tesobonos for deficit financing. Tesobonos is a peso-dominated bond which is issued by the government of Mexico and the coupons associated with it are indexed to the United States dollar. The Mexican government issued the tesobonos as a way to convince the international investors to buy Mexican debt that is exempted from risks associated with currency exchange. The investors are therefore immune to the effects of changes in the dollar value of the peso between the period of purchase and redemption. The risk associated with the change of currency is therefore carried by the Mexican government and not the investors. For instance, if the value of peso depreciated during the period of purchase and redemption, the Mexican government and the taxpayers would be liable for the losses.

According to the international economic statistics that were available before the crises, the Mexican government had the chance to evade the crises if the monetary authorities had information about the actual state of Mexican reserves. At the beginning of 1994, the Mexican reserves were at around $25 billion, but towards the ends of the year, the reserves had reduced to about $5 billion (Tavlas, 1997). The existing reserves were insufficient to meet the existing financial obligations. Furthermore, a default was considered to be a perilous move for the stability of the international financial markets. The deficit, therefore, led to the currency crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed to provide the Mexican authorities with information about the decline in the reserves. Following the crisis, the IMF has resolved to closely monitor the financial reserves of developing countries to avert the occurrence of a currency crisis. The IMF has also resorted to providing early warning indicators to avoid the occurrence of a currency crisis in any nation.

Currency Crisis
Currency Crisis

Mexico has a great deal of the forms of direct capital investment in 1994, but it was not sufficient. The government was receiving massive amounts of money through stock-brokers who were motivated by the quick returns which were about 20 percent annually. The investment bankers and the stock-brokers were ready to exit Mexico as soon as the crisis begun thereby increasing the magnitude of economic damage. The troubles of Mexico extended from insufficient reserves, inability to service the debts, and incapability to generate profits on the equity capital. The crises also contributed to other social and political problems such as the Chiaspas rebellion at the beginning of 1994 (Tavlas, 1997). The political issues made the foreign investors take their money out of Mexico thereby broadening the implications of the crisis. The implications of the crises forced the Mexican government to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund and the United States government.

According to Gil-Diaz (1998), the currency crisis in Mexico was contributed by the execution of the privation of the public enterprises and the deregulation of the Mexican banking sector. He concluded that the confiscation of the banking sector followed by subsequent privatization in 1991-1992 is the cause of the currency crisis. The Mexican monetary authorities made the deregulation of the banking sector without due consideration about the implications that it would have on the federal reserves. The decision later resulted in an increase in unpaid debts to the banks. The currency was then triggered by the Mexican government in 1994 because of the economic decisions. The crisis was determined by the fragility of the banking system and not the macroeconomic factors as indicators by other researchers. Three years before the crisis, the Mexican peso was overvalued which also resulted in economic pressure. The monetary policy that was passed by the Mexican authorities was inappropriate because the Federal Reserve was raising the interest rate while the Bank of Mexico maintained the existing rates. It, therefore, made the investors leave increasing pressure on the reserves.

The Mexican currency crisis had a regional effect through a contagion in various markets such as Brazil, Argentina, Asia, and Thailand; the effect was referred to as the “Tequila effect.” The crisis affected both the stock market and the foreign exchange market. Only the countries that had high economic fundamentals were exempted from the effects of the crisis. The Mexican government responded to the adverse situation by requesting for loans from different countries and international bodies among them being the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank for International Settlements. In the end, Mexican government managed to secure a loan totaling to $50billion that was used to meet the financial obligations. However, the move by the government to ask for loans received criticism from some of the European authorities that considered the move to be a moral hazard.

The Mexican government continued to resolve the crisis by implementing a severe adjustment program. Some of the strategies in the program included reducing the public spending, increasing the value added tax from 10 percent to 15 percent, and raising the prices of all the public goods and services. The program worsened the situation in Mexico as the Gross Domestic Product dropped by 6.5 percent and inflation increased by 50 percent. Furthermore, the banking system collapsed thereby forcing the government to use public funds in the rescue. The government also changed the exchange rate from fixed to flexible. Later, a law was passed that would only allow the government budget to be approved if the deficit is zero to prevent further lending. The initiative had positive implications in the GDP because of the increased exports of products to the United States. Through the Banking Fund for the Protection of Savings, the government was able to bail out the banking system that had collapsed.  Years later, the government decided to sell the Mexican banks to the international financial groups. Presently, there is only one Mexican bank as foreign investors own the rest.

One of the international institutions that played a role in rescuing Mexico was the International Monetary Fund. The IMF is responsible for providing loans to nations that are in financial deficit. The loans are usually issued following an agreement between the nation and IMF. The IMF responded to the crisis by providing a loan to the Mexican government through the U.S Treasury as a way to protect the foreign banks and other existing financial institutions. The various government also played a vital role in rescuing the currency crisis among them being the United States and Canada. The U.S. has had a long outstanding relationship with Mexico, and it is also the largest trading partner. Although the Federal Service Bank contributed to the crisis by increasing the interest rate, the United States assisted the Mexican government with loans to end the crisis. On the other hand, Canadian government through the North American Framework Agreement (NAFA) contributed funds beyond what had been collected at the time of occurrence of the crisis.

Russia Currency Crisis (1998)

Russia was severely hit by a currency crisis in 1998 that left both the economic and financial system in crisis. According to Gerry & Li (2002), the financial crisis begun in August 1997 when the Russian government defaulted on its domestic financial and economic systems. The duration was characterized by an increase in inflation, high levels of unemployment, and shanking of the economy. Although the crisis lasted for a short period, Russian who was living in the urban areas were severely hit. Globalization and uncontrolled speculation in the financial markets is one of the leading contributors to a currency crisis in the developing countries. The rise in the amount of capital that is flowing in the international financial systems as a result of globalization has had negative impacts on the economies of different countries. The crisis is caused by failures of certain sectors of the economy in the countries involved which later spreads to other countries through contagion and spill-over effects. For instance, the Asian currency crisis spread through contagion and spillovers to other countries such as Thailand in 1997 and later to Russia in 1998. Therefore, Asia is one of the causes of the Russian crisis although research shows that there is a little linkage between the crises that hit the two countries.

The Russian crisis can also be attributed to both political and economic factors. The Russian government triggered the crisis by selling the GKOs and OFZs which denominated debt instruments and coupon bonds after the fall of USSR. The Russian government then started experiencing problems that had negative implications on both the financial and the economic systems. The Russian government responded by converting the Ruble dominated instruments into US dollar-dominated Eurobonds to alleviate the risks involved. The Russian government continued borrowing from external sources that later raised concerns of its default exposure as foreign investors decided to cut their connection with the Russian debt, equity, and commodity market because of lack of confidence. The withdrawal of investors from Russia economy reduced the government capability to finance the debts thereby causing a currency crisis. According to the reports provided by the Economic Intelligence Unit (1998) in 1998, 30 percent of the Russian expenditure was used to service the short-term debts that the government had secured from other governments and international institutions. Therefore, high levels of debts are one of the causes of a currency crisis in Russia.

Russian Currency crisis was also caused nu the fall in the value of the Rule, weak banking system, and the reduction in the level of the foreign reserves. The Russian government tried to remedy the situation through the Central Bank by pegging the Russian Ruble to the US dollar with a narrow band. Several other studies have been conducted to establish the causes of the Russian financial crisis which had serious consequences to the economic and financial systems of other countries such as Turkey, Ukraine, and Moldova. The devaluation of the Russian Ruble also had negative implications on the Russia banks regarding assets and liabilities. There was also a reduction in the foreign exchange contracts because of the increase in the value of liabilities. Furthermore, the Russian government debts such as bonds and treasury bills that were used assets were reduced to worthless assets because of the defaults. As a result, most banks were closed which made a majority of the Russians to lose their savings. Lastly, the crisis caused political fallouts and frequent demonstrations of workers who were demanding a pay rise (Margolin, 2000).

The Russian currency crisis was resolved after intervention by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which has the mandate of monitoring the economic and development policies enacted by various nations. The other responsibilities of the international body are to lend money to countries that are experiencing financial challenges and provision of technical assistance regarding research and training to countries that are in need. The IMF intervened in the Russian crisis by lending money that would help the government to escape the financial collapse. Despite the IMF lending money to the Russian government, the situation was already out of control since the money could only be used to take care of the short-term debts but not offer a permanent solution to the difficult situation.

For a country to survive a financial crisis, it requires a plan for the aid to be used in a manner that will help escape the situation. It is an excellent idea for the international body to issue financial aid, but the Russian government was not prepared to use the funds to evade the crisis. The government had lost control of the situation, and therefore it required more than financial aid to help the situations. The Russian government responded by coming up with a plan that would ensure the crisis does not happen again. The funds issued by the IMF were used in rescuing the banking system which plays a vital role in maintaining economic growth in a nation.

Conclusion

A currency crisis is one of the challenges that has been experienced by several countries especially the developing countries. Among the countries that have been affected by currency crisis include Mexico between 1994 and 1995, Russia in 1998, and Thailand in 1997. The crisis has severe implications on the economic and financial systems of an economy. The causes of the crisis vary from one nation to another, for instance, the crisis in Mexico was caused by reducing the level of Federal Reserve while excessive borrowing caused the Russian crisis. Once the countries are caught in such difficult situations, it the responsibility of the international bodies and other government to assist in escaping the situation. International Monetary Fund played a vital role in helping the above-discussed countries escape the harsh implication of currency crisis. The United States and Canada through the North American Framework Agreement (NAFA) assisted Mexico financial aid in helping rescue the situation.

References

Carbaugh, R. (2016). International Economics. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.

Economist Intelligence Unit (1998). Russia: Country Report. London. pp. 42.

Gery, C. J. & Li, C. A. 2002. Vulnerability to welfare change during economic shocks: evidence from the 1998 Russian Crisis. Working Paper. University of Essex, Department of Economics, Discussion Papers.

Gil-Díaz, F. (1998). The Origin of Mexico’s 1994 Financial Crisis. Cato Journal, 17 (3), pp. 303-313.

Margolin, R. (2000). The Russian Financial Crisis: from craze to crash. The Stern Journal, New York University.

Ötker, I., Pazarbaşioğlu, C., International Monetary Fund, & International Monetary Fund. (1995). Speculative attacks and currency crisis: The Mexican experience. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, Treasurer’s Dept. and Monetary and Exchange Affairs Dept.

Tavlas, G. S. (1997). The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses. Boston, MA: Springer US.

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Circular Flow Model Economics Report

Circular Flow

Title: Economic Circular Flow. Everyday expenditure is determined by the current treads on the economic status of a country. The prices of commodities has been influenced greatly by the prices treads of the energy generating fuels such the prices of the petroleum products. In addition the economic stability of a country is another key factors that determine the prices. For example in a country that is experiencing inflation, the prices of most commodities are relatively high, a fact that is contributed by poor performances in exchange rate earnings.

In most cases, the interest rates are mostly determined by the central bank. They are used as the main monetary tool that is used by policy makers and the economist to control the supply of money in the economy thus regulating the inflation rate in the economy. The central bank is there to issue loans to the commercial banks so that they can circulate the money to the citizens. In addition the commercial bank gives the commercial banks the directives on the minimum rate at which they are going to lend their customers. Therefore the federal system is the main determinant of the interest rate irrespective of the market forces on demand and supply of money.

Basically interest rate are use as incentive as well as disincentives to the people willing to take loans from any commercial banks. As an incentive, the commercial banks well give out loans at an affordable interest rate that will attract many business and other people willing to take a loan. This will increase the aggregate money supply in the economy. This is commonly used in case an economic stimulus is necessary. On the other had high interest rates discourages business taking loans.

The action leads to reduced business transactions and hence less amount of money circulation in the economy. The action is used during the period of inflation. When the interest rates are high, the prices of commodities are also relatively high, the consequence is high cost of financing the loans. For this reason people tend to purchase commodities that are of lower prices, this is always subject to quality. During my purchased the interest rate were lower therefore the price of my vehicle was relatively low. At the period the interest rate was about 14% compounded on reducing balance.

The price of gasoline was relatively lower compared to the previous prices. In every economy the prices of the petroleum products greatly influence the prices of other commodities. This is due to the transportation of commodities from the area of manufacturing to the market. Lower prices of gasoline in during the time of the purchase therefore ensured that the prices were lower and affordable. The prices for the crude oil and other related products were also low. Therefore even the maintenance of the vehicle was cheaper. When I made my purchase the prices of gasoline were dropping which was an implication that the future prices are going to be lower. This was just a prediction that is always necessary thing to do before buying any consumable good.

Securing a loan requires collateral and other securities. Most banks will. Always give loans to individual who after a careful appraisal shows the ability to pay the loan. In addition to this banks prefer giving loans to the people who are employed or business people who show to have a sustainable businesses that can be able to finance the acquired loan. I went for a loan after I was employed having considered all the above factors. These are the once that led to a successful loan application.

During the recession period the economy is characterized by high inflation rate meaning that the prices of most commodities are considerably high. During the purchase the interest rates were lower a probable recession times. The lower interest rates in the commercial banks were to encourage more people to take loans. This is a move that facilitates the increment in the supply of money circulation in the economy. In addition to this reduced interest rate facilitates more investors to borrow loans to set up more investments. This action is there to improve the production business cycle that improve the production of an economy.

During recession period there are chance of unemployment and therefore it’s risky to take a loan during the period. However when taking a loan it is important to reconsider other sources of income that can fund the loan once the source of income is suddenly withdrawn. Before making my decision on whether to take the loan or not I had considered other factors that will finance my loan in case of such uncertainty.

Due to the great recession of 2008 that the country realized its impact the government is still operating on with the fiscal expansionary policy measures despite of the deficit that the country was experiencing. Fiscal policies involved reduction on taxes and adjustments on government expenditures. The tax relieve lowered the prices of the vehicles greatly which gave me a good opportunity to purchase a good Car of my choice.

In addition the international monetary fund study had realized a possibility of positive multiplier effect on the expansionary fiscal policies that had been set. The effect was subjected unemployment and future output. More output and employment implied better future of the economy. These were encouragement to the foreign and local investors, consequently there were prospects of high future productivity. This gave me a prediction that there is a larger probability of retaining my source of income as well as creation of more sources that will cater for the maintenance and financing my loan.

The united state environmental protection agency has been trying over the years to fight the environmental pollution has been a problem in our cities and towns. One of their effort is to encourage the vehicles and other fuel users to purchase machines that are fuel saving and those that operate with complete combustion of fuel to minimize the release of carbon monoxide to the environment.

These efforts should not be ignored as the implication on pollution is both health and economic problems, a fact that a well productive economy is composed of healthy people. For this reason I had to choose a simple vehicle that has low fuel consumption capacity.

The emissions such as carbon dioxide causes acid rain that has adverse effects on metallic structures which most of our houses and other structures are made of. In addition there is adverse effect on agriculture which is one of the source of raw materials for our industries. The emissions also may cause diseases after inhaling these poisonous diseases. This consequently minimizes the production level of the nationals and hence lower GDP.

Basically the circular flow model is made up of two sectors which determine income output and expenditure. Equilibrium state is arrived at when the tendency of income levels, expenditure and output does not exist. This is an implication that income, output and expenditure are equal. The buyer expenditure in this case becomes the sellers’ income. The income gained from sale of their product is also spent to pay for other factors of production. During the processes, there is transfer of income to the owners of these factors. These expenditures consequently leads to the circular flow of payments.

The Circular Flow Model

Circular Flow Model
Circular Flow Model

For many years the position of the circular flow economy has greatly influenced the prices. This is due to the monetary and fiscal policies that an economy takes either to control inflation or to correct a recession. Introduction of injections and stimulus of the economy also influence the expenditure. When the interest rate are high the money in circulation is reduced thus most consumers will have little money to consume. In addition due to uncertainty people will tend to hold money due to fears of the deflation and recession. Uncertainty about future tend to influence people to either hold money or use money in making future investment.

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Economic Prediction Price Elasticity Model

Economic Prediction and Price Elasticity

Economics models are false and so government should ignore their predictions. Explain, discuss and evaluate the accuracy of this statement.

Price Elasticity – Economics models are the tools which economists use to predict future economic developments by measuring past relationships among variables such as household income, consumer spending, employment, interest rates, tax rates etc. and forecasting how changes in some of these variables will affect other variables. An economic model is said to be complete if it can accurately forecast many of the variables future course, however, no economic model can be complete in true sense. There are several forces outside the model that affect the calculation and forecasting of variables. There are two ways by which these outside factors affect the forecasting and economic predictions. The input errors are concerned with inaccurate assumption of outside variables and model errors which explains the deviation of the equation of economic model from the assumption to the actual. Hence, it can be said that economic models are subjective approximations of reality and are designed to explain the observation.  Therefore, the model’s predictions should be moderated so that it can accommodate the effect of random data variables (Deming, 2000).

Many researchers believe that economic theories and models simply provide ways to look at systems and determine how changes in variables affect the overall outcome. It also explains advantages and disadvantages of various economic models and systems. However, predictions and subsequent policy decisions are made after following value judgement of policymakers or the government. Therefore, the government should view at economic model only as a framework which provide insight of a contextual theory. More empirical evidence and real life economic parameters should be considered while making policy decisions based on economic predictions (Godley & Lavoie, 2006).

No economic model can perfectly predict the real future. A good example of the economic model’s failure is to predict the reasons for the global financial crisis of 2008. The prevailing economic model was deficient to provide sufficient attention towards the relationship between demands, wealth, and excessive financial risk taking. There were considerable research which had been conducted to uncover the same and also a new behavioural equation was added to the existing economic models. The true test of the new model will happen when it will effectively flag financial risk levels that would need a precautionary policy change. This is an ongoing process which consist of constructing, testing, and revising models and outside forces so that economists and policymakers can predict the future course of economy (Taylor, 2009).

Government neither can overlook economic models’ forecasts nor make predictions completely based on them. It has also been seen that economists seem to put aside political factors outside their equation. Politics among other outside factors is the most important factor that helps to determine the outcome of economic policy. In view of these analysis, it is suggested to use structural models which makes several “what if” economic analysis on several input combinations. In this way, the policymakers would have substantial information on various numerical variables and the forecast can be recalculated whenever required (Diermeier, Eraslan & Merlo, 2003).

Identify estimates of the price elasticity of demand for at least three different products

The “law of demand” suggests that the higher the price of a good, the lesser demand from consumers. This is the fundamental law of all economic models to predict the economic forecasts. In order to predict consumer behaviour in more details, economists use several techniques which evaluate the sensitivity of consumers’ demands with respect to changes in price. The most commonly used technique is known as “price elasticity of demand”. In simple terms, it is the proportionate change in demand given a change in price. For example, if a one unit decline in the price of a product produces a one unit increase in demand for that product, the price elasticity of demand is said to be one (Green, Malpezzi & Mayo, 2005).

Price Elasticity
Price Elasticity

Numerous studies suggest that the majority of consumer goods and services falls in the price elasticity of between .5 and 1.5. Essential products to everyday living, which have fewer substitutes, typically have lower elasticity for example, staple foods. Since, staples such as cereals are necessities in the diet, and are usually cheaper so that people safeguard their income for spending on such essentials when prices increase. Furthermore, lower income households tend to have higher price elasticity for food items than high income households. As food products occupies a large share of total income in these households, price changes have a substantial impact on the allocation of budget. On the other hand, magnitude of the elasticity for animal source foods such as fish, meat and dairy are higher than staple cereals as these are considered as luxury food items and there are always many substitutes available for consumption of these food choices (Andreyeva, Long & Brownell, 2010).

Goods with many substitutes, or are considered luxuries as are not essential, or whose purchase can be easily postponed, have higher elasticity. For example, the demand of automobile is considered as elastic as there are three kind of substitution takes place. In response of a unit price change, consumer of a new car can delay the purchase, or can choose to purchase another category of car or chose not to buy a new car and use another mode of transport. Furthermore, in case of buying a particular model of car, it would be highly elastic demand as there will be a lot of substitutes. On the other hand, demand for cars in rural areas would be inelastic over the longer run. Because there are very few alternative mode of transports available (Parry, Walls & Harrington, 2007).

Another example can be taken from health care services, where the demand for health care expenditure is found to be price inelastic. A range of price elasticity estimates it to be -0.17, which means that a one unit increase in the price of health care will lead to a 0.17 unit reduction in health care expenditures. Moreover, the demand for health care is also found to be income inelastic as it is in the range of 0 to 0.2. The positive sign of the elasticity suggests that there will be increase for health care demand as income increases, however the low magnitude of the elasticity indicates that the demand response would be relatively very small (Duarte, 2012).

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References

Andreyeva, T., Long, M. W., & Brownell, K. D. (2010). The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food. American journal of public health100(2), 216-222.

Deming, W. E. (2000). The new economics: for industry, government, education. MIT press.

Diermeier, D., Eraslan, H., & Merlo, A. (2003). A structural model of government formation. Econometrica71(1), 27-70.

Duarte, F. (2012). Price elasticity of expenditure across health care services. Journal of health economics31(6), 824-841.

Godley, W., & Lavoie, M. (2006). Monetary economics: an integrated approach to credit, money, income, production and wealth. Springer.

Green, R. K., Malpezzi, S., & Mayo, S. K. (2005). Metropolitan-specific estimates of the price elasticity of supply of housing, and their sources. The American Economic Review95(2), 334-339.

Parry, I. W., Walls, M., & Harrington, W. (2007). Automobile externalities and policies. Journal of economic literature45(2), 373-399.

Taylor, J. B. (2009). The financial crisis and the policy responses: An empirical analysis of what went wrong (No. w14631). National Bureau of Economic Research.

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