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Ref: econ0001

This project examines the concerns of deflation in the UK. Deflation is defined as a sustained decline in an aggregate measure of prices such as the rate of the retail price index (RPI), Deflation is a generalised and persistent decline in most, if not all, prices of goods and services (Buiter, 2003). It is normally associated with falling aggregate demand leading to a negative output gap where actual GDP is less then potential GDP. With Asian economics already experiencing declining prices, the worry has been that deflationary pressures could deepen and even spread globally. The focus of this research is to distinguish if deflation is present in the UK manufacturing sector and whether there are signs of general deflation in the economy.

  • 13,000 words - 70 pages in length
  • Excellent use of contemporary literature
  • Excellent use of statistics and economic models
  • Will help you design your own research project
  • Ideal for economics and finance students

1: Literature Review

2: History of Deflation
The Great Depression
Why the Great Depression happened
Recent experiences of deflation

3: Economic theory of Deflation
Economic Determinants of Deflation

4: Possible Causes of Deflation
Deflation Drivers
Costs of Deflation

5: Policy Response
Policy before the Onset of Deflation
Policy Once Deflation Has Set In

6: Risk of Deflation in the UK
Indicators of Deflation
Price indicators
Excess capacity and Output gap
Inflation, Deflation and the Business Cycle
Calculating the indicators
Obtaining potential GDP using statisticians method

7: Econometric modelling of Deflation/Inflation
The Theory
Model One, OECD GDP Output Gap
Model Two, Output gap calculated from estimated potential output
Model three, Manufacturing Prices and Output gap
Model four, 25 percent output gap


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