Population Ageing

Population Ageing

Population ageing is an issue of global importance; it has the potential to pose serious challenges to a nation’s infrastructure, economy and health sector. The world today is witnessing an increase in the proportions of the population of older people. This increase has the potential if not checked to pose challenges to nation’s well-being. It is well known that old age is accompanied by several physical disabilities, illnesses and senility, it therefore goes to follow that there is a strong impact of increasing population age on both the labour force and health care sector.  In the paper, impacts of increasing population ageing were discussed with particular emphasis placed on how the trend is currently affecting India. The paper also takes a look at the key challenges population ageing pose to the economy and health care sector of India.

Population ageing is an issue of global importance; it has the potential to pose serious challenges to a nation’s infrastructure and health sector. Knodel (1999) describes populations ageing as a shift in the age distribution of a country’s population whereby the share of citizens with old age increase in population and those of younger age suffer a decline relative to the nation’s population. Population aging of population form an important part of the demographic transition process for any country. Generally, the definition of the aged population can be construed to refer to citizens who are age 60 years and above in a country’s population. Some researches on ageing have suggested that the role of fertility is greater than that of mortality in the population ageing process (Irudaya Rajan, 2010; 2007; 1999).

Population Ageing
Population Ageing

Source: (www.study-aids.co.uk, 2015)

In the twentieth century an occurrence of high fertility and low mortality rates led countries to put forth policies that were aimed at controlling the resulting population boom. These policies resulted in the increase of elderly citizens due to controlled birth rates and therefore fewer young citizens. This decline in fertility, still experienced today, would lead to an increase in the elderly population in the future. Equally this demographic shift has led to strong socio-economic changes as there is a great distance between young and old generations and a corresponding distinction in their experiences. Although the increasing population age is as a result of demographic transition process, the dire changes in cultural and socio-economic conditions are resultant of corresponding change in nations’ traditional systems due to urbanization and migration.

This paper will try to highlight some of the challenges that are posed by increasing population ageing. Particular focus will be paid to India and areas of discussion will centre on the economic and health care sectors of the country.

Global Population Ageing

Old age is not easy to analyse or define as it a function of relative social and physical interpretation. However, one uniform fact is that elderly citizens have multiple needs and these needs need to be supported, cared and catered for in any socio-economic setting.

In a report published by the World Health Organisation, developed counties have citizens with higher age profile (i.e. they generally have older citizens) while less developed nations have more number of old people. The report further indicated a rapid growth of older citizens in the less developed nation, predicting a 250 percent increase between the years 2010 and 2050 as compared to a smaller 71 percent increase in the more developed nations (World Health Organisation, 2011). Globally, the population growth of aged citizens is faster than that of any other age class. In developed countries a projected increase rate of 45 per cent in half a century thereby rising from 287 million to about 417 million by 2050 and 440 million by 2100 (Irudaya Rajan, 2007).  For less developed countries however a more rapid increase has been recorded with an increase rate of 3.7 percent annually from 2010 to 2015 and a projection of 2.9 percent annual increase before 2050 (Irudaya Rajan, 2007). Focus is placed more on the developing countries due to the vast numbers of aged citizens that are present in such countries. This demographic class seem to be increasing in population and deteriorating in living conditions. It has been suggested (Irudaya Rajan, 2007), that the reason for such large numbers of aged citizens lies in the extensive populations of these developing nations.

India and Population Ageing

The population of older people had been projected to rise dramatically in the next few decades. Reports indicate that while majority of the countries that will experience population ageing will be less developed nations, 50 percent of these countries will of the Asian continent (Irudaya Rajan, 2006).  India will likely be one of the most affected nations (Irudaya Rajan, Mishra and Sarma 1999). Reports as at 2008 showed that India had more elderly citizens than any other country in the world except from China; this figure was recorded as 90 million. Just 7 years prior (i.e. 2001), the population for older persons was recorded as 77 million indicating a 14 percent increase (Irudaya Rajan, 2010). Also, from 1961 to 1991, a total of 5.6 per cent increase was recorded for elderly population in the country and 7.1 percent increase from 1991 to 2001 (Irudaya Rajan, 2010). A United Nations report states that population share of Indian citizens of ages 60 and above will rise from 8 percent in 2010 to 19 percent 1n 2050 (United Nations Population Division, 2011). This remarkable shift in the population share of the older citizen would bring with it a variety of serious challenges to the country that may be social, political, and economic as well as health- related (Population Reference Bureau, 2012).

Figure 1: shows population aging forecast from 2001 to 2050

2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
60 and Above
Number (millions) 77 96 133 179 236 301
% of total pop. 7.5 8.2 9.9 11.9 14.5 17.3
Sex Ratio 1028 1034 1004 946 1008 1007
70 and Above
Number (millions) 29 36 51 73 98 132
% of total pop. 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.8 6 7.6
Sex Ratio 991 966 770 930 891 954
80 and Above
Number (millions) 8 9 11 16 23 32
% of total pop. 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 1.4 1.8
Sex Ratio 1051 884 866 843 774 732

Source: (Irudaya Rajan, 2006)

The table above (fig1) shows a steady increase in the population of citizen of 60 years and above across the decades.

In India, there is a higher population of males as compared to females, and this may be as a result of higher life expectancy for males at birth when compared to females recorded in 90s. Also there is the occurrence of excessive female mortality at infancy and adolescence (Irudaya Rajan, 2010). What is more remarkable is that although females in India generally experience mortality at tender age, thereby given them lower life expectancy at such ages, they generally have a higher life expectancy at older ages (Irudaya Rajan, 2010). This implies that they older they are, the older they live.

Implications of Population Ageing for Economy

In the coming years, India will experience increasing population age which will result in the reduction of working-age citizens to support the aged citizens of the country and consequently the old age dependency ratio. Old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between working age (15-59 years) population and the population of aged citizens (above 60 years of age). Index of ageing is the ratio between the population of aged citizens and that of younger population (0-14 years). Fig 1 below shows the current and forecasted values old age dependency ratio and index of ageing ratio in India from 2001 to 2051.

There is a marked increase for both old age dependency and index of ageing ratios. In 2001, old age dependency ratio in India was recorded to be approximately 11.9 and may rise as high as 29 by 2051.

According to Husain and Ghosh (2011), living conditions of aged Indian citizens is particularly poor despite the rapid economic growth observed in the country recently. There is a generally low income and little or no saving due to low earnings, majority of aged citizens are situated in the rural regions without access to banks (Population Reference Bureau, 2012).

In India there is a lack of universal social security which leads people to retire at old ages (Irudaya Rajan, 2005). Usually, senility and reduced efficiency sets in as from 70 years old cutting employment short. Sickness and disability- accompaniments of old age- are also major reasons of retrenchment. While in work service majority of Indian workplaces set aside portions of salary for their employees in the way of contribution which is then released at retirement. A bonus gratuity is also paid along with final salary upon retirement. Only few cases Less than (11 percent) see salary earning employees receive pensions in addition to their provident funds. This scenario described is a recipe for poverty. Generally people only retire when they are too old or too sick to work for either themselves or a hiring company, therefore they are dependent on provident funds set aside from their salaries while in service which in most cases is less than 30% of their salaries while they were working. In effect the standard of living of these citizens is greatly reduced and the cost of living increased due to added challenges like health care, welfare, family etc.

Implications of Population Ageing for Indian Health Care Sector

Health care is of key importance in a nation’s society. Healthy production citizens are a function of a good, effective health care system. The rising population of aged citizens in India will have profound effects on the health care sector. If more citizens are of older ages (i.e. 60 years and above), the health care services will have to modify their resources to accommodate this demographic shift (Chatterji et al., 2008). For instance, population aging in India has the potential, if not properly checked, to result in an increase of chronic disease and other health related issues (Chatterji et al., 2008). This means that health clinics will be face with more and more cases of chronic diseases thereby increasing cost of maintenance.

It is usually the case that old people are generally of worse health than younger ones, since old age is often accompanied by recurring and numerous physical ailments and illness (Irudaya Rajan, 2007). Senility and neurosis are also features of old age, these two ailments often lead poor mental health.  In India, there are reports of particularly serious and poor health cases amongst elderly citizens, especially in the rural areas. In their report, Nadal, Khatri & Kadian (1987) reported that majority of the aged populace were suffering from at least one of diseases like; poor eyesight, cough, whooping cough, bronchitis, asthma, tuberculosis of lungs, dental problems or anaemia. Irudaya Rajan (2007) reported that as the age of older citizens increase there is an increase in the rate of sick and bed-ridden patients.  Darshan, Sharma & Singh (1987) named blindness and deafness as the major physical disability occurring in Indian old people.

References

Chatterji, S., Kowal, P., Mathers, C., Naidoo, N., Verdes, E., Smith, J.P. and Suzman, R (2008). The Health of Aging Populations in China and India. Health Aff (Millwood). 27(4), 1052–1063

Darshan, S., Sharma M.L. & Singh, S.P. (1987). Health Needs of Senior Citizens Population Ageing. In M.L. Sharma and T.M. Dak (Eds.) Aging in India. New Delhi: Ajanta Publications

Husain, Z. & Ghosh, S. (2011). Is Health Status of Elderly Worsening in India Population Ageing? A Comparison of Successive Rounds of National Sample Survey Data. Journal of Biosocial Science. 43(2), 211-31.

Irudaya Rajan, S. (2005). Chronic poverty among the Indian elderly. In A.K. Mehta & A. Shepherd (Eds.), Chronic poverty and development policy in India. New Delhi: Sage Publications).

Irudaya Rajan, S. (2006). Population Ageing and Health in India. Centre for Enquiry into Health and Allied Themes (CEHAT)

Irudaya Rajan, S. (2007). Aging, pensions and social security in South Asia. In S. Irudaya Rajan (Ed.), Social security for the elderly: Experiences from Population Ageing in South Asia. New Delhi: Routledge.

Irudaya Rajan, S. (2010). Demographics, population ageing and employment in India. ILO Asia-Pacific Working Paper Series

Irudaya Rajan, S., Mishra, U.S. & Sarma, P.S. (1999). India’s Elderly: Burden or Challenge? New Delhi: Sage Publications and London: Thousand Oaks.

Knodel, J. (1999). The Demography of Asian Ageing: Past Accomplishments and Future Challenges for Asia, Population Ageing Lies Almost Entirely Ahead. Asia-Pacific Population Journal.

Nandal, D.S., Khatri, R.S. & Kadian, R.S. (1987). Population Ageing Problems in the Structural Context. In M.L. Sharma & T.M. Dak (Eds.) Aging in India (Pp. 106-16). New Delhi: Ajanta Publications

Population Reference Bureau. (2012). India’s Population Ageing Problem. Today’s Research on Aging.  Program and Policy Implications

United Nations Population Division. (2011). World Population Ageing Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations

View Sociology Dissertation Topics Here

Economics Dissertation Topics

Economics Dissertation Topics

Writing an economics dissertation can prove to be a tough task and quality economics dissertation topics are hard to come by. The dissertation in hand allows you to investigate your ability for, and interest in doing economic research. Economics is not the easiest of subjects but it is one of the most interesting. Economics touches nearly every aspect of business and economic theory has been taught for centuries. Economics is seen as the analysis of production, consumption, distribution of wealth and allocation of limited resources to satisfy the needs of people and business. Nowadays, economics extends across national boundaries in the form of international business and global fiscal policy; this is noticeable with the formation of the European Union and flow of international finance.

Your economics dissertation is likely to be the biggest project you undertake at university or college. It can consist of anything between 10,000 to 15,000 words for a typical undergraduate dissertation and will involve in-depth research, time and dedication, you must organize your own time effectively in order to make it a success and set realistic goals. Here we have given a few thoughts and some advice on planning, researching and writing your dissertation. You will see a list of economics dissertation topics further on in this post.

Economics Dissertation Topics
Economics Dissertation Topics

Before you begin your economics dissertation, you must decide on an appropriate economics dissertation topic and title. Your dissertation should focus on a specific issue try to avoid generalizing as you may write a fragmented and disjointed piece of research. The topic should be interesting, something that can uphold in-depth research.

Choosing an economics dissertation topic and getting started

  • What is your topic question?
  • Do you have adequate background research?
  • Stay focused on it

In previous posts, I always stress to keep the research up to date and to engage the reader. There is no real benefit in writing an economics dissertation on outdated theory or defunct policy.

Choose a topic from an area you are familiar and comfortable writing about. Remember that this is a large project that will keep you engaged for most of your final year. It is advisable to revisit topics you have already covered on your degree as this may lead you to elaborate and base your dissertation on a project you have already completed. Writing your economics dissertation will be the ideal opportunity for you to use your intellect, skills, creativity, and economics training.

Economics Dissertation Advice

  • For empirical papers: Where will you get your data? How will it help answer your question?
  • What statistical techniques will you be able to use? Will you be able to identify causation or only correlation?
  • Theory papers typically are not just informal discussions. They tend to involve more mathematics than empirical ones, not less.
  • If you are having trouble understanding a topic, a good place to start is to look in several relevant textbooks to see how they handle it.

Economics is a specialized and scientific subject that involves equations, mathematics, figures and tables, economic theory is often underpinned by statistics and you need to be mindful of this. The field of economics differs vastly from other business subjects such as marketing, strategy and information management. These subject areas tend not to rely heavily on statistics or equations to strengthen findings and recommendations.

Below is a list of economics dissertation topics that will help you

Economics Dissertation – Economic Deflation Concerns in the United Kingdom

Economics Dissertation – Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Exchange Rates

Economics Dissertation – Relationship Between Stock Price And Market Efficiencies

Economics Dissertation – Determinants Of Bank Performance In China

Economics Dissertation – Importance of Economic Integration for Developed Economies

I hope you have benefited from reading this post. Feel free to add comments or suggests that I may have left out. These will be considered and added to this post.

View Economics Dissertation Topics Here

Multi-Asset Portfolio Dissertation

How The Role Of Property In A Multi-Asset Portfolio Has Been Affected By The Credit Crunch

View This Dissertation Here

The existing literature argues property’s role in a multi-asset portfolio to be a means of risk reduction opposed to a method of returns. However, with the recent credit crunch having an adverse effect on the property market, this study will look into the affect it has had upon property’s role. To reach this finding, a combination of primary and secondary data will be used.

The secondary data was obtained through a literature review and the primary data from interviews and a questionnaire. The findings were that the credit crunch has left the UK property in a position where it can offer investors opportunity to make capital gains and a secure income through rents. This has led to property’s role now being mainly focused on returns but still included as a means of risk reduction.

Multi-Asset Portfolio Dissertation
Multi-Asset Portfolio Dissertation

In a multi-asset portfolio an investor will likely include property to diversify and better their overall returns. However, with property values falling, it is likely investors were wishing to pull out of this asset class, cut their losses and venture elsewhere due to their risk adverse attitudes. A negative correlation when comparing property with stocks and bonds makes the later pair appears the way forward. Reason being; they should theoretically be outperforming the current property market rectifying diversification in a multi-asset portfolio.

If investors make this decision and reduce the amount of real estate, levels of diversification will decrease, increasing specific risk. The chance of disposing their property is extremely slim however because of property’s liquidity being further extenuated by a market downturn. Property is evidently not offering the attributes investors’ want, yet they are unable to dispose of this unwanted asset. This puts investors in a very difficult situation of being left with a depreciating asset in their multi-asset portfolio.

A possible solution to this would be identifying potential emerging markets, such as Latin America and India, which may offer the desired benefits currently unattainable in the UK. So with property still existing among UK fund managers’ portfolios the role it now offers must be determined. This dissertation will be based on three key assumptions namely:

  • Investors’ main reason for including property in a multi-asset portfolio is to reduce risk
  • Due to the poor performance of property in recent years, investors are reducing the property exposure in a portfolio and replacing it with more traditional methods such as bonds
  • Even with the recession being a global problem, certain investors feel there are still benefits from international property investment

The opening chapter of this dissertation has been produced to give readers an understanding of the overall study and what the upcoming chapters will be exploring. Chapter two will be a literature review analysing applicable company publications and academic literature, relating to the use of property within a multi-asset portfolio. It will clarify why various investors wish to include property, its characteristics, alternative assets to invest in and overseas investment.

Each of these points will be tackled in their own independent section. The following chapter (three) will exhibit clearly the use of methodologies used throughout the dissertation to find out how the actions of investors has changed towards property during the credit crunch. Within the chapter it will also justify why these research methods were best suited for this field of research. The fourth chapter will bring together the results from the literature review, interviews and online questionnaire, clearly explaining what has been identified.

The final chapter of the dissertation shall be the conclusion. It will summarise the key findings answering the aims and objectives outlined at the start of the paper, identifying how the role of property within a multi-asset portfolio has been affected by the credit crunch. It will also make clear the limitations of the study and recommendations for similar studies in the future.

This research will help support many other studies that have been carried out over the years in regard to property’s role within a multi-asset portfolios. This paper will differ to previous studies, carried out by the like of Bryne and Lee, as it is primarily focusing on an economic downturn opposed to data over long periods with varying market conditions. There is a distinct lack of existing literature on this matter. By shedding light on this aspect, it will give an investor’s insight on how property is best used in a multi-asset portfolio during a struggling market.

If you enjoyed reading this post on multi-asset portfolios, I would be very grateful if you could help spread this knowledge by emailing this post to a friend, or sharing it on Twitter or Facebook. Thank you.