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Modeling Internet Penetration: A System Dynamics Approach


Ref: ict0042

It is a fact that Internet penetration is a constant and continuing concern in societies where there is an increasing emphasis on delivery of online services by the public and private sectors. Policy makers are concerned on the digital divide, as those without adequate resources are unable to have equitable access to the services. As such, understanding the dynamics of the penetration process is vital in developing policies to stimulate greater adoption. In this thesis, the dynamics are captured using System Dynamics methodology in order to understand and present the holistic view of the underlying mechanism. The factors, components and actors that influence the penetration rate are identified. The dynamics of their interactions are modeled to give a holistic view of the situation to policy makers and allow them to test 'what-if scenarios' and policy alternatives. It is found that, the Causal-Loop diagramming and time-series plot helps understanding of the process and consequences. The dynamic behaviour of a system can be understood by looking at the time plots and relating the time plots to the causal loop diagram. The model has been applied to the situation in Malaysia to include contextual dynamics. Due to the holistic view of the approach, a system dynamic model is capable of showing how policy can interact with one another as exemplified by price-lowering subsidies and competition policy in Malaysia. Interaction across many elements also presents policy makers with visual representation of the possible consequences. The System Dynamics modeling approach and the generic model have future potential for application in the policy development for Internet adoption.


  • 11,000 words - 62 pages in length
  • Excellent use of literature
  • Excellent in depth analysis
  • Well written throughout
  • Ideal for IT and business students

1: SUMMARY

2: INTRODUCTION
Background of the Study
Aims and objectives
Overview of the Methodology
Delimitations

3: LITERATURE REVIEW
Theoretical Literature
The Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) Theory
Modeling Literature
The Logistic Model
The Bass Diffusion Model
Quantitative Literature
The Quantitative Modeling Approach with Historical Fit
Econometric Studies
Qualitative Literature

4: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: SYSTEM DYNAMICS
Suitability of System Dynamics to Problem of Internet Penetration
The Modeling Process
Tools for System Dynamics

5: DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS FOR THE MALAYSIAN CASE STUDY

6: MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Modeling the Social System
Modeling Subsystem Components
Category 2-Imitators Subsystem
Internet-Cost-Conscious (ICC) subsystem
Computer-Cost-Conscious (CCC) Subsystem
Access-Line-Cost-Conscious (ACC) Subsystem
Category 6: Underserved Area Subsystem
Education Subsystem
Integrating Subsystems into Stock-and-Flow Structure

7: CASE APPLICATION

8: WHAT IF SCENARIO

9: DISCUSSION
Strengths, Weaknesses, Limitations and Future Research Opportunities

10: CONCLUSIONS

11: BIBLIOGRAPHY


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