This dissertation examines long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) between the United States and other competing countries and regions using monthly data from 1960 to 2019. Mainstream methods of PPP test and most influential researches are reviewed.
Three methods of PPP testing – Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Panel Unit Root Test have been applied in this paper. We identify that PPP holds between the US and a certain number of countries by analysing the test results. Also, the results of PPP test between the US and its top 10 trading partners have been specifically investigated and elaborated.
This dissertation highlights that both the Multivariable co-integration tests and the bivariable Cointegration tests are applied in order to find out the effect of prior restrictions on the results. Then, this chapter examines whether the PPP holds between the US and its top 10 trading partners countries minus China with the panel unit root test. Finally, in the sixth chapter, this paper concludes that PPP holds in 41 countries out of 176 countries, and among the US top 10 trading partners, only China, Canada and India do not have solid evidence supporting PPP.
The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, as one of the most influential economic theories, has been widely used in macroeconomic analysis. It states that the price of the same commodity or a basket of products in two countries should be proportional to the exchange rate between the two countries. The exchange rate is crucial to the economic development of a country, not only because it affects the volume of imports and exports between countries, but also because it is highly correlated with other economic indicators, such as GDP and interest rate. Therefore, it is necessary to study the PPP theory to determine the equilibrium exchange rate as well as assist governments in adjusting exchange rates based on empirical evidence.
This dissertation will be structured in the following way. In chapter 1, this paper introduces the definition of purchasing power parity and then explains the significance of PPP studying. A brief history of the stages of the PPP study is also covered in this chapter. The second chapter is the literature review. It reviews the origin and evolution of PPP theory and common test methods. Sample testing results using different methods are also discussed in this dissertation and they also give us a broad view of PPP tests conducted for various countries using data from different time spans.
In the meantime, critiques and strengths of each test method are covered to provide a comprehensive view of each PPP test method. Besides, previous studies on the US are reviewed as well. In the third chapter, this paper presents a series of econometric methods and models to be used in this thesis, including unit root test, cointegration test and panel unit root test. In the fourth chapter, it explains the data source in detail. For EU countries that miss data due to the adoption of EUR, this paper also describes how the equivalent data is generated to fill the holes. The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis. This chapter first plots the real exchange rate for the US and its top 10 trading partners, and by presenting the graphs, the trend will be analysed.
In general, the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory works miserably when applied to real-world data. In other words, it is rare for the PPP relationship to hold true between any two countries at any particular point in time. In most scientific disciplines, the failure of a theory to be supported by the data means the theory is refuted and should be thrown out or tossed away.
However, economists have been reluctant to do that with the PPP theory. In part this is because the logic of the theory seems particularly sound. In part it’s because there are so many “frictions” in the real world, such as tariffs, nontariff barriers, transportation costs, measurement problems, and so on that it would actually be surprising for the theory to work when applied directly to the data.
Purchasing Power Parity Dissertation Contents
Chapter 1 – Introduction
Chapter 2 – Literature Review Two Versions of the PPP Theory Evolution of PPP Test Simple Static PPP Test Unit Root Test Cointegration Test Panel Unit Root Test Non-linear Test US & Related Tests
Chapter 3 – Empirical Framework Tests for a Unit Root in the Real Exchange Rate Cointegration Test Panel Unit Root Test
Chapter 4 – Data Description
Chapter 5 – Empirical Analysis Real Exchange Rate Observation Unit Root Test Cointegration Test Multivariate Cointegration Test Bivariate Cointegration Test Panel Unit Root Test Analysis of the US Top 10 trading countries’ Test Result
Contactless Payments Economics Dissertation – Has the Uptake of Innovative Payment Methods affected UK Student Spending Habits? Emphasis on Contactless Payments
This dissertation analyses the current payment landscape in the UK in a period of increased digitisation and use of contactless payment. The aim of this dissertation is to understand how innovative payment instruments like contactless cards and mobile payments, have affected the spending behaviour of students age 18 – 24.
It investigates the rationale for such behaviour and explores the differences that arise when using traditional methods such as cash. Using qualitative semi-structured interviews and questionnaire responses, this study builds on existing research and applies thematic content analysis to identify trends in student spending patterns when exposed to innovative payment methods.
Further illustrated by quantitative regression analysis, the use of contactless payment methods, significantly influenced student spending habits. Common themes apparent from the analysis included a subconscious accumulation of small, impulsive purchases, as well as a reduced sense of guilt when using contactless payments. This was primarily attributed to the theory that in comparison to using cash for payments, contactless transactions are intangible and therefore do not feel like using real or tangible money.
Chapter 1 – Introduction
Chapter 2 – Literature Review History of contactless payment Contactless Payment Technology Mobile Proximity Payment Adoption of Technology Model Consumer Payment Choice The Preference for Innovation The Transition to a Cashless Society Student Spending Habits Psychological Aspects The Pain of Paying
Chapter 3 – Methodology Research Design Research Style – Qualitative Semi- Structured Interviews Investigative Questionnaire Data Analysis Quantitative Analysis – Probit Regression Bank Balance Financial Fluency
Chapter 4 – Data Analysis and Discussion Description of Sample Qualitative results and Descriptive Statistics Initial Observations Payment Tangibility The Effect of Contactless Adoption on Spending Mobile Proximity Payment (MPP Adoption) Inhibitors to Contactless Adoption Student Debt Contributors Implications of a Cashless Society Quantitative Regressions Awareness of Current Bank Balance Financial Fluency Limitations of the Dissertation
According to UK Finance (2020). “We all tend to reach for the payment methods that we are accustomed to using, forming habits over time that can be quite strong. Once we have found a set of payment methods that we are comfortable using and that help us to manage our finances effectively, it can take a great deal for us to change to a different way of doing things. As a result, payment markets have historically tended to evolve slowly. Despite this natural inertia, technological change and significant innovation in payment methods have brought greater choice for people and businesses in how they pay for things.
This has been led by the popularity of the smartphone, which has revolutionised many aspects of modern life in just over a decade. Also, innovations such as contactless payments, mobile wallets, online banking and mobile banking have had a significant impact on the way that we now choose to pay for goods and services and manage our finances. As people have realised the value to them of doing things in a different way, so their payment habits have evolved, resulting in a gradual revolution in payments in the UK.
During 2019, card payments continued to grow as consumers and business increasingly used their cards to pay for things, whether online or in the ‘real world’. This growth saw card payments increase to the point of accounting for over half (51%) of all payments in the UK for the first time. Online and contactless payments continued to act as substantial drivers of this growth, with eight out of ten UK adults using contactless payments in 2019.
Strong growth was also seen in Faster Payments as both businesses and consumers increasingly used online and mobile banking to make payments and to transfer money. Mobile banking in particular continues to grow strongly, and users are continually widening the range of tasks that they perform using such services, exploring beyond checking their balances to also make one-off payments and manage other aspects of their finances” Source: UK Finance. UK PAYMENT MARKETS SUMMARY 2020.
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Predicting Economic Market Failure and Collapse in The London Housing Market and How It Compares to a Collapse in The Wider UK Housing Market – A VAR Approach
The general objective of this dissertation is to (i) test whether a collapse in the London Housing Market would affect the UK economy and (ii) see if its impact on the economy is more significant than the impact of a UK Housing Market shock. We use a Vector Auto-regressive model (VAR) to analyse how GDP, Inflation and Uncertainty might react to a shock in either the London or the UK Housing Market. To do that, we go through the Impulse Response Function (IRF) which helps us identify the sign, significance and duration of the responses of our variables to a simulated shock in one the Housing Market.
We then go through the Historical Decomposition which calculates the contribution of the housing markets to the different structural accumulated shocks of our variables; and, helps us estimate whether the results found through the IRFs make empirical sense. We expect GDP to fall, Inflation to slow down, and Uncertainty to be negatively affected. We also consider the possibility of a recession being created in the economy, if GDP growth is affected negatively for more than three quarters. Lastly, we suppose that the London Housing Market will have a more significant impact on the economy.
London Housing Market Dissertation Contents
Chapter1 – Introduction
Chapter2 – Literature Review
Chapter3 – Analysis Objectives Methodology and Data Empirical Model and the Data Identification Strategy Results Impulse Response The London Case The UK Case Historical Decomposition Comparing the London case with the UK case Sensitivity Analysis Robustness Analysis Changing the order Replacing Uncertainty with other variables Dividing the sample Results prior to 1992 Results following 1992 Comparing our two sub-samples results Critics and limitations of our model
It is the biggest plunge since the 7.0% annual drop recorded in August 2009, says ONS. “House prices in London have fallen at their fastest pace since the financial crash a decade ago as the capital bears the brunt of the nationwide torpor in the property market. Amid a dearth of potential buyers, the cost of a home in London was 4.4% lower in May than a year earlier, according to the latest official snapshot of the market from the Office for National Statistics.
The ONS said it was the biggest drop in London prices since the 7.0% annual fall recorded in August 2009 – a period that included the near-meltdown of the global banking system in the autumn of 2008” (The Guardian, 2019).
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Normally, unemployment takes place when an individual who is actively searching for is actually unable to secure work. With this, any country globally uses the unemployment concept to determine the health of its economy. In essence, the unemployment rate is the most used measure of unemployment which is basically the actual number of unemployed individuals divided by people within the labor force. Thus, in any country, there happen to be unemployment even though the economy is at full employment because of frictional and structural unemployment (Hakim, 2015).
First and foremost, frictional unemployment takes place when people keep transitioning from their old works to new ones during a certain period. This kind of unemployment is actually considered a voluntary one since workers decide to remain unemployed in an economy instead of taking up the first job opportunity offered. Hence, this kind of unemployment is normally present because a significant number of people consistently keep on searching for new employment opportunities (Dullien & et al., 2018). Equally, structural unemployment take place when market conditions, as well as business cycles, keep on changing due to oversupply of employment opportunities and individuals are fundamentally willing to work, however they are not qualified for these employment opportunities; hence, it is absolutely impossible for unemployment to be zero in any economy (Johnson, 2017).
Lastly, individual, societal, and country costs are primal costs associated with unemployment. In essence, unemployed people are actually subjected to massive loss regarding income earnings, hence, reducing their living standards. With this, the societal is compelled to spend more in order to provide the needs of unemployed population and unemployment benefits paid by the government keep on increasing whilst the government is unable to collect enough income tax as before; hence, increasing government borrowing or reduce its other expenditures which reduce economic growth (Hakim, 2015).
Unemployment and Consumer Price Index
Produced by the Bureaus of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to measure the inflation rate in America. Normally, the CPI is determined by taking price changes of every item in the predetermined product basket and then averaging them. In essence, the CPI adjusts payments to inflation in order to effectively assess the price changes associated with the cost of living. However, CPI’s accuracy has been questioned to a number of biases that actually make it to overstate the effectiveness of the inflation rate.
First and foremost, when the prices for products in the consumer basket substantially increases and consumers opt to substitute them with lower priced ones, there exist substitution biases. This is because the CPI cannot precisely predict the price increase effect on consumers’ budget given the fact that the CPI is based on a fixed-weight price index (Dullien & et al., 2018). Moreover, the CPI does not take into consideration new products when determining the index until they fundamentally become ordinary. Above all, sudden decline in product prices normally linked with new technology ones and advanced increase in life and usefulness of products are not whatsoever depicted in the index. Lastly, when consumers shift to new outlets, the CPI is unable to account for this given the fact that the product basket is predetermined. With this, the CPI is not able to precisely measure a change in the cost of living standard over time (Johnson, 2017).
Dependability of Government Tax Revenue and Spending on the Economy’s State
In any country, when the economy expands so does people’s income rises since more employment opportunities are created and people are employed. Even if the government cannot actually raise the taxation rate, it can still collect more taxes. This is because the tax revenue base keeps on becoming big as more and more people are able to secure employment and pay income taxes; hence, the government is able to increase its expenditure.
Contrary to this, when an economy is unable to create employment opportunities and citizens are unemployed, the tax revenue base is small since people have no income on which taxes can be levied from. Subsequently, the government is forced to reduce its expenditure whilst increasing borrowing in order to provide unemployment benefits. Thus, the nature and composition of an economy’s state influence government tax revenues, government expenditure and social welfare (Hakim, 2015).
Limitations of Gross Domestic Product as an Indicator of Living Standard and Unemployment
As the total monetary value of final output produce within a nation’s borders in a specified time period, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is normally calculated either quarterly or annually. In essence, the GDP incorporates all total output of the country by adding up all private and public consumptions, government expenditure, investment, and net export to measure the economy’s overall activity as an indicator of nation’s economic health and its living standard (Dullien & et al., 2018). With this, the GDP measure a nation’s output produced and retailed in legal markets whilst omitting productive activities such as prostitution and individual fixation of water leak which have no market transactions; hence, the GDP does not perfectly measure the living standard within a certain country.
Moreover, the GDP does not measure the environmental quality in determining the living standard of the nation. By an economy having significant GDP does not necessarily indicate that its people have a quality life when air, water, soil or even other natural resources are actually polluted. In essence, the GDP totally fails to measure the contribution of environmental sustainability to the country’s living standard. Equally, the GDP does not take into account how leisure time actually contributes to the country’s living standard. Although a country can have higher GDP if its economy is 12 or 24 hours one, this does not imply that people are better off given the fact that leisure time is vital in living standard (Johnson, 2017).
Therefore, the prevalent alternative to GDP as an indicator of living standard is the Human Development Index (HDI). Besides considering a country’s GDP, the HDI emphasis on people more specifically on their opportunities to achieve work and live satisfaction. In essence, in addition to the GDP, the HDI uses health and education statistics to measure the living standard within a certain country. By partially using purchasing power, which measures the actual cost of the same basket of output produced with a country’s border, the HDI can adjust the GDP to better measure living standard of a country (Dullien & et al., 2018).
Dullien, S., Goodwin, N., Harris, J. M., Nelson, J. A., Roach, B., & Torras, M. (2018). Macroeconomics in Context. Routledge.
Hakim, T. A. (2015). Introduction to Macroeconomics.
Johnson, H. G. (2017). Macroeconomics and monetary theory. Routledge.
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Falling Oil Prices and their Long-term and Short-term Impact on Ordinary Investors
Falling Oil Prices – Oil prices for the better of human history have been subject to various factors like economic recessions and booms. All one has to do is to use history as a reference to ascertain whether these prices are likely to change when taking into account the prevailing global aspects like the change in the United Stated presidency. On the same note, it is undeniable that OPEC has acted to influence oil prices and hence the global economic setup. Bottom line, the crude oil industry experiences ups and downs and can only be treated as volatile.
It is for this reason that the effects of falling and low prices on investors ought to be interrogated in the sense that it is only prudent to assume that oil prices eventually influence investment decision makers. After all, oil prices have been found to have a tendency of affecting almost every aspect of the economy and hence both future and current investments. At the current global age, oil prices have experienced a dip and stand to remain so for a considerable time into the future according to economists and other stakeholders (Degiannakis, Filis & Kizys, 2014).
It is for this reason that OPEC, with its powers, has concentrated their efforts on ways and mechanisms to use in raising these oil prices including lowering production and hence prices. When there is a shift in oil prices, in this case, a downward shift, it means that they are losers and gainers. Thus, from a critical analysis point of view, there needs to be a careful and clear interrogation of the concept.
The purpose of this study paper is to investigate the impact of long term and short term implications of falling oil prices on the ordinary investor. The objectives of the study were to have a deeper understanding how this affects both energy dependent and independent investors. The study established that as oil prices continue to decline, it is crucial for ordinary investors to be long sighted in making their decisions. Though falling and low prices are a temporary phenomenon, it so happens that their effects can never be overlooked.
For example, low prices mean that oil and oil products consumers have a greater disposable income to spend on other products. This means that retail outlets experience a sense of business boom (Bohi & Montgomery, 2015). The same case applies for motor vehicle manufacturing industry whereby low oil prices induce prospective customers and consumers to indulge in buying more vehicles. Taking into account that the motor vehicle industry is rather a crucial sector of the global economy, it is only evident that oil prices have a causal effect on quite a large chunk of the economy.
The study further established that low oil prices have both macro and microeconomic effects which equate into more fiscal and monetary policies by stakeholders. For example, federal governments have to come up with such policies like increased tax rates due to the low revenue they get from low oil prices. Increased tax rates automatically affect ordinary investors. It is for this reason that such countries have to perform macroeconomic adjustments to cushion for these impacts. In so doing, falling or declining oil prices effects must be remedied by running substantial and rising fiscal deficits.
Additionally, falling oil prices results in reduced commercial activities around oil producing regions or areas in that such companies like truck retail and construction companies often reduce their investments due to low returns. This paper employed qualitative research methodology. Data was collected by reviewing relevant peer-reviewed economic literature on oil prices and the economy. Data was presented as a narrative essay and utilized convenience sampling method.
Statement of Problem
Though there have been numerous efforts geared towards understanding oil prices in the economy, the process has not been impressive so far. This is particularly so because ordinary investors may not be able to comprehend the underlying economic jargons, models and policies. More so, history have acted to teach investors lessons on investments in such cases where they are not sufficiently equipped to adapt to these oil changes. It has become increasingly important to have a better understanding and hence this study paper.
This study paper investigates and establishes the long-term and short-term impacts of falling oil prices on ordinary investors. The paper seeks to help have a better understanding of oil prices impacts on the economy by reviewing both fiscal and monetary policies that are taken in accommodating these oil price changes.
Significance of the study
Findings of this paper may be used by relevant stakeholders to help curb negative effects of falling oil prices and encourage ordinary investors to enjoy the benefits that come with the same.
Review of Literature
Effects of Falling Oil Prices on Currency Devaluation and Investments
Currency exchange rate is the value which one currency is measured against another currency. With low and falling oil prices, there tends to be push-up domestic inflation due to high import prices. It is undeniable that investors require higher returns to compensate for the inflation. It the follows to compensate for inflation; the federal bank has to raise interest rates to curb inflation. With the government attempting to curb inflation, various steps are followed including Open Market Operations and Cash to Liquidity Ratio for banks (Nazlioglu, Soytas, & Gupta, 2015). The effect of raising the interest rate on loanable funds can be explained by the following economic model:
From the above analysis, it is evident that an increase in interest rate leads to a reduced supply of loanable funds and hence low investment from ordinary investors.
The aggressive measures are aimed at reducing the supply of currency in the economy by making its supply low thus increasing its value. In so doing, the interest rate in the economy automatically increases meaning that the government is in a bid to discourage banks to lend loans and funds to the consumers and discourage investors from accessing such loans and finances. Consequently, it results to reduced investments. On the same note, it is important to note that currency value is a crucial factor in attracting foreign investments (Sadorsky, 2014). Thus a low currency caused by inflation acts towards discouraging ordinary investors from investing in such countries with low currency.
In the bond market, there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates such that if a currency crash was to happen, there is a likely hood of the bond market crash. High-interest rates caused by low or falling oil prices usually results into low bond values making it unattractive to ordinary investors including foreign investors who may be willing to invest in international government bonds.
The effects of declining oil prices in the economy have never been clearer. Falling oil prices mean that countries have to cut public budgets. This, in turn, has resulted into serious social and political ramifications that have been found to have a direct relation with investments. For example, in Russia, the ruble suffered significant devaluation with falling oil prices. Consequently, the stock-market prices tend to fall. The effects of declining oil are better understood when such factors like federal or central banks reserves shrinking, capital flight, low exports and low foreign investors are taken into account (Brown,Chan, Hu & Zhang, 2017).
Furthermore, when falling oil prices are significant enough, they tend to downgrade a country’s bond value to almost junk levels which are mainly done by credit rating agencies thus acting to discourage ordinary investors. Due to oil price weakness, Consumer Price Index has shown inflation might be incumbent in the long-run if oil prices are to continue into the foreseeable future. However, falling oil prices act like a tax cut for consumers such that they can spend other than oil and energy.
Currency devaluation in some cases may be a voluntary concept whereby a country may devalue its currency to make its exports competitive in the world market. In the recent past, China devalued its Yuen currency reaching an almost six year low (Basher & Sadorsky, 2016). Consequently, it resulted into the low crude oil. As the oil market is characterized by the dollar currency and hence dollar peg, countries have to act within and beyond their limits to maintain currency levels competitive against the dollar. As of the year 2016, the IMF urged Nigeria to devalue its currency as low prices hit the economy. Being an aggressive strategy, it was a viable option in attracting investments after the currency stabilized in the long-run.
In the Nigerian case study, the government sought to restrict access to foreign currency and ban quite a wide range of imports. Though this was viewed as being detrimental by the IMF, it was a measure to curb the effects of low oil prices and inflation (Alfaro, Bloom, & Lin,2016). The effects of the same were also felt by the common consumers and ordinary investors.
The Nigerian government was of the view that it was better to restrict access to foreign currency and limit certain imports into the country rather than devaluing their currency. This, of course, had a negative effect or impact on investors who dealt with this line of imports. Similarly, restricting access to foreign currency meant that local and international investors would not transact in certain currencies limiting their diversification both in stock and currency trading. Furthermore, in such a country which is import dependent in terms of food, it meant that investors had to get less for their money (investment returns) or had to charge consumers for their products.
In choosing not to devalue the naira, the Nigerian decision makers risked severe foreign exchange that could potentially lead to decreased foreign investment and hence an increase or surge in the black-market sector (D’Ecclesia, Magrini, Montalbano & Triulzi, 2014). Thus, this is a direct attack on the business sector especially considering that oil is just but one commodity affecting all other range of consumable products and services.
Falling Oil Prices and Increased Tax Rates
In a bid to recover tax revenues lost through falling oil prices, the federal or central banks usually takes upon increasing tax rates in the economy. Changes in the top marginal tax rates influence peoples’ decision especially in terms of consumption trends. From the argument of libertarians and economists at large, tax increase dissuades ordinary investors from economically viable projects. An increase in tax caused by falling oil prices automatically reduces the amount of disposable income for consumers meaning that they will spend less or forego certain products and services meaning such investors who had invested in those product lines experience a dip and form and revenue accruing from their operations. Additionally, when corporate taxes are high, it acts to derail additional investments. High tax rates mean that there is the low after-tax rate of return on investment hence low investment esteem.
High taxes in the economy results into low personal and house hold savings. Such savings would have otherwise been used for investment purposes in the long-run or even spent on goods or services at a future date (Brunetti, Büyükşahin, & Harris, 2016). When tax rates are increased, it means that there is a strong correlation between tax, interest rate, saving and hence investment. Taking into account that increased tax rates go hand in hand with high-interest rates, the effect of the same can be explained by the model below.
In increasing taxes, it has become a common phenomenon for federal and central banks to allow for tax credits. They have been found to be more favorable than tax deductions whereby the latter rarely occurs with falling oil prices. The value of a tax credit depends on the type of credit either given to individuals or individuals. In such cases where the government offers tax credits, it enables investors to continue investing in certain sectors of the economy to balance between high taxes effects and increased investment all the same. On the other hand, non-refundable tax credits are directly deductible from the tax liability (Enriquez, Smit & Ablett, 2015). Any excess of the same potentially reduces tax liability further. This has been found to negatively affect low-income earners because they are not able to enjoy and utilize the entire credit amount. Refundable tax credit is favorable and tends to promote expenditure and investment which is a good thing for ordinary investors all the same.
Falling Oil Prices, Local Investments and the Stock Market
With falling oil prices, it is a common phenomenon that business activities in oil producing regions tend to decrease. For example, construction companies benefit less from these low prices as oil mining and refinery companies have to cut and lower their production capacity in a bid to maintain high prices. The powers that OPEC has in dictating and influencing oil prices are quite shocking. According to the author, OPEC members’ oil production account for almost forty percent of the global oil supply which puts a considerable amount of power in their hands.
By acting as a united front, they would act to shape the future of the oil industry and more so regarding influencing oil prices to their advantage (Diaz, Molero, de Gracia, 2016). The underlying question is what would happen if these countries were to hold on and stop their oil exports for some time.
As of last year, oil producing countries including Russia and Saudi Arabia acted towards ensuring high oil prices. This was meant to reduce cut-throat competition and price under cutting proving that OPEC has the ability and power to increase prices. However, this was done by reducing the production levels and hence low supply into the market (Heitner, K. L., & Sherman, 2014). It is important to note that such countries like Venezuela have a binding agreement not to increase production significantly making the agreement even more strong in pushing the oil prices high.
With reduced supply and operations, local business suffers significantly. Ordinary investors in the housing sector feel the impact whereby the demand for housing units ultimately takes a deep. With reduced operations, there will be reduced workforce and hence a low demand for housing units. It is practical that with the opening of oil companies in a certain region, local businesses and investments sprout up. Thus, such investors like shareholders have to make a careful decision on the type of portfolio they are to invest in.
For companies being quoted in the stock market, it means that their shows trade less as they are less attractive to invest in. It has been established that there is a correlation between oil prices and the stock market (Javan & Vallejo, 2016). Such factor prices in the economy like wages and interest rates tend to offset energy costs. In reading future trends of the market, investors have to factor in factor prices. With increased consumption of oil product, prices in the market might rise.
With falling oil prices, the motor vehicle and other related oil energy industries experience a surge in their revenues and hence their share prices. The same case applied to the transport sector. However, there has not been an explicit correlational explanation as to the relationship between oil prices and overall stock market. It has been identified that in surprising cases, stock markets may fall with falling oil prices. In such cases where oil and stock prices go hand in hand, it is as a result of softening global aggregate demand. The relationship between stocks and oil is rather volatile. Prices may move in the same or opposite direction. As it stands, both prices seem to move in the same direction.
Time Value of Money and Falling Oil Prices
Time of value is an accounting concept that deals with what monetary benefit one would rather enjoy now rather than later. This concept has been so far been used in valuing investments and more so in the field of oil and accounting when such factors like interest rate and rate of return are put into account. Thus, the underlying question is, should one invest now or later in the oil industry as according to time value of money.
As previous research has shown, it is advisable to invest when oil prices are high because the interest rate is low and so is the tax rate. Thus, it can only be held that with the changing oil prices, investors should invest when oil prices are high to increase the returns in terms of present and future value of money.
The research methodology used in this dissertation was qualitative, Triangulation/Mixed Review study utilizing convenience sampling research methodology. This research method involves data integration in that illustration, triangulation (convergent validation) and deep analysis are undeniable in this study paper. Mixed method of research involves combining aspects of both quantitative and qualitative research methods through triangulation whereby data from different sources are compared and analyzed to come up with the most reliable and appropriate conclusion and recommendation.
Triangulation, in this case, involves the use of diverse data and combining various research methods. This would go hand in hand with convenience sampling where convenient and pertinent data to the study will be analyzed. It is the most applicable method in studying real life scenarios through a detailed contextual analysis of a limited number of conditions or relationships.
The study design involved went hand in hand with the triangulation of different data sources in relations to a specific issue, phenomenon or situation with an aim to deeply understand and explain it of characteristics and other aspects like rationale and distribution. It combines the strengths and reduces weaknesses of using a single method. Through triangulation, convergence and divergence of data can be established thereof.
Discussion, Conclusion, and Recommendation
From the above analysis, it is only true to hold that falling prices have both short-term and long-term impacts on ordinary investors. Falling prices tend to result in high taxes, high-interest rates and more so a change in the stock market. It is thus important for investors to have a clear understanding of oil prices changes and the corresponding effects in that it ultimately affects the general economy in various ways. This paper should prove useful for ordinary investors and other stakeholders who are willing to seek information on oil industry and investments.
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