Tort Law Case Law Analysis

Tort Law

Tort Law – Any business field is affected by many aspects that may give rise to wrongful acts which may be done by the business or by a different party to a business entity. Tort law thus comes in to deal with any sort of the civil wrongs which may arise in line of doing business, such as negligence which emanates from other sources than breach of contracts (David Ziemer, n.d.).

One of the significant court cases in this category is the Palsgraf v. Long Island Railroad Co., 248 N.Y. 339, 162 N.E. 99 (1928). This case is considered to be among the leading in the American tort law in regard to liability to an unanticipated plaintiff (David Ziemer, n.d.). When a civil wrong occurs, both the individual and business could be financially and legally responsible for the injuries caused as a result of negligence. One of the main factor relied upon when determining negligence include the breach of duty by the defendant which they owe to the plaintiff.

The case of Palsgraf v. Long Island Railroad Co., 248 N.Y. 339, 162 N.E. 99 was handled by the New York Court of Appeals. In the case, Helen Palsgraf was the plaintiff and was waiting at the Long Island Rail Road station. She was on her way to take her kids to the beach. While boarding, two men tried to get on board before the plaintiff, and one dropped a package while being assisted by railroad employees, and it exploded. The explosion caused a huge coin-operated scale located at the platform to hit Palsgraf. She started stammering after the occasion and ultimately sued the railroad (Palsgraf, Punitive Damages, and Preemption, 2012). She argued that the railroad employees acted with negligence when they were aiding the man, and it was neglect that led to her harm.

Tort Law Dissertations
Tort Law Dissertations

The plaintiff first got a jury verdict in which she was to be compensated $6,000, but the decision was appealed by the railroad. On Appellate Division, Palsgraf got 3–2 decision and the railroad appealed once more. In the New York Court of Appeals, the railroad won the case as the court overturned the original jury verdict. It was ruled that there existed no negligence as the employees did not have the duty of care to Palsgraf while they were assisting the man to board because the injury was unforeseeable harm from helping an individual with a package.

A dissent was however made stating that the employee negligently extricated the package thus dislodging it without clear knowledge of the contents in it, thus leading to the explosion which broke the scale and harmed plaintiff who was an intending passenger (Teacher, Law, 2013). The dissention held that regardless of the duty to plaintiff, the doer of negligent act should be held to account for the threat caused to other people’s safety and all its immediate consequences.

The ruling may outwardly appear to be unfair because if the employees had been more careful with the package, the harm could not have occurred. However, I agree with the ruling in that it is based on the law of tort, specifically under the liability clause. The law holds that a tort liability only occurs in the event that the defendant breaches a duty of care, which such defendant is owing to the plaintiff, and in turn this act of negligence leads to injury being sued for. This is the concept which was accepted in the American tort law after the ruling made by the New York Court of Appeals (Teacher, Law, 2013). This case shows how the law deals with the proximate cause of the injury in connection to negligence.

References

David Ziemer. (n.d.). Duty of care remains thorny issue in Wisconsin law. Wisconsin Law Journal (Milwaukee, WI)

Palsgraf, Punitive Damages, and Preemption. (2012). Harvard Law Review125(7), 1757–2012

Teacher, Law. (November 2013). Palsgraf v Long Island Railroad – Case Brief

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Behavioral Finance Financial Decision Making

Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Financial Decision

Behavioral finance and financial decisions have a big role in shaping critical decisions that people make. The study summarizes the facts about financial choices and the behavioral and psychological theories influencing them. We learn that people have predisposed cognitive constraints coupled with low levels of financial literacy, in such regard, their decision-making choices violate sound financial principles. The case studies teach us that most investors and managers over-extrapolate from past returns and trade, or they make decisions based on overconfidence and personal history.

We explain most of these behaviors based on behavioral finance theories like prospect theory, behavioral finance, and behavioral corporate finance. Many companies and institutions today shy away from traditionally defined benefit pension plans in favor of defined contribution plans, in such circumstance, the role of the financial adviser is gaining an integral value.

In this case study, a recent graduate from UMUC is employed to advise different clients on investment. The consultant delves into studying the biases in financial behavior that predict prospective theory. While applying the key concepts of behavioral finance, the consultant can recognize that the client (Violet) displays behavioral biases that impede optimal savings and consumption allocation. He can learn this by deducing from concepts of finance that assess how people organize their financial assets by creating separate slots for money designated for specific roles as well as other approaches such as mental accounting.

Expected Utility and Prospect Theory:

Unlike most of the economic theories, Expected utility theory is the most preferred by scholars ((Shiller, Robert J.). The approach attracts people because it has the best economical representation characterizing true rational behavior in uncertain situations. However, application of expected theory is criticized in many circumstances because of the systematical misrepresentation of human behavior.

Allais (503) proved that Prospect Theory refers to a mathematically developed theory that substitutes “value function” contrasted to “utility function” and “weights” contrasted to “probabilities” in expected utility theory. Here, people work to increase the weighted total value instead of utility such that probabilities do not equal weight. Simply put, people view extremely probable as certain but the improbable events as impossible.

In many circumstances, prospect theory appears inconsistent with expected utility theory. To begin with, in probabilities, utility is all linear but not value. Also, value is defined regarding losses and profits, but utility depends on final wealth.

Contrary to expected utility theory, prospect theory foretells that preferences depend on how a problem is approached. In case the reference point defines the outcome as an advantage, in this case, the resulting value function will be curved in, and those making decision will be risk-averse.  But if the reference point’s outcome is seen as a loss, those making decisions will be risk seeking since is a convex value function.

Violations of Expected Utility

The possible abuses of this theory include the Allais paradox (certainty effect), and inflation of small probabilities. As for Allais paradox, there is an extreme underweighting of high probabilities. In such a case, it falls short of certainties such that the travel time outcomes become extremely attractive. On the other hand, inflation of small probabilities violation projects itself in the form of a set of stated-preference route-choice challenges.

Value Function

The definition of the value function lies on variations from a reference point, and in most circumstances, it is risk aversion–concave for gains, convex for losses. Similarly, value function is acute for losses than for profits. In this case, the stress of decisions is less compared with the equivalent probabilities, with few exceptions in the assortment of low probabilities. A value strategy deals with the purchase of stocks that have low prices compared with the dividends, earnings, book assets, or similar measures of significant value.

The Implications of Prospect Theory for the Efficient Market Hypothesis

An efficient market, based on the definition by (Fama 1965), is characterized by a large pool of rational profit maximizers who compete against each other to interpret the market prices of individual securities in the years to come; out of which a large pool of the present information is easily available to all participants. The prevailing competition in such a market opens the effects of new information on the actual prices in an instantaneous way. In such a way, the prospect theory sets in under the circumstance that makes stock price unpredictable following a random pathway.

Provided that information flow is unrestricted and quickly reflects in the stock price, the probability for the future price to change will depend not on today’s price changes, but on tomorrow’s news. Given that news is unpredictable, consequently, price changes also turnout unpredictable, and this conforms to the principle of prospect theory whereby people view extremely probable as certain but the improbable events as impossible.

Efficient Market Hypothesis is characterized by the security prices that reflect available information. It is based on the traditional view that investors use rationale in executing the present information to increase the expected utility.

Anomalies

The Anomalies of Efficient Market Hypothesis’ set in when people feel there is something wrong with the concept of Efficient Market Hypothesis. Under such conditions, the rational approaches of investors lacks consistence. It is not wholly right and must be analyzed alongside other human behavior approaches like the prospect theory, overconfidence, or expected utility, or over and under reaction, as well as the limits to arbitrage. Examples of anomalies as expressed by prospect theory include the size, valuation, and the momentum effect.

  1. The Valuation Effect. Studies reveal that firms with higher P/B multiples are outperformed by those with low price/book (P/B) multiples.
  2. The Size Effect. Studies predict that firms with smaller market capitalizations outperform those with large market capitalizations, disregard of the controls in their higher risk.
  3. The Momentum Effect. Studies reveal that firms with good performance for the past six months to one year period outperform those that performed poorly over the same period.

Bias identification and how such behavioral finance concepts affect their investment decisions

The First Colleague: The Concept of Illusion of Control

The stated bias happens when people overly justify their ideas. It describes people’s propensity to believe that they can exert influence on the outcomes of action when, in the real sense, they cannot. When this kind of bias occurs, people behave as if they can fully control their situations than they actually can ((Ising, Alexander).

The first colleague responds by claiming to know the technology industry and is determined to invest in them. While he might have worked in the industry for a while, it is not justifiable to assume that the circumstances will prevail in the long run. He is preoccupied with the illusion of control bias.

However, the illusion of control bias can be financially damaging since entrepreneurs might be motivated to trade more than what is right. It may lead them to employ limit orders, maintain under-diversified portfolios, or other related means just to express a false sense of influence over their trade portfolios.

People who practice this bias find it hard acceding with the irrationality and the changing nature of markets and the fact that their expectation is a failed one. The outcome is a spiral of investment catastrophe with the rationalization that while their belief is right, the one who drove the buttons was so incompetent.

In the long run, the investor becomes overconfident. The consequences of long-term investment may not be affected by the immediate-term opinion, emotions, and impulses that frequently engulf financial transactions. Rather, the success or lack of it emanates from uncontrollable factors such as the prevailing economic conditions and corporate performance.

The Second Colleague: Confirmation Bias

According to the second colleague, the value of commercial property in the city has maintained a 14% increase since the year 2000 reported a famous newspaper article. Now, this is almost two decades down the line. It is very unbelievable to assert that the value of the property has remained consistent over such a lengthy period, and very few investors would settle on that. However, depending on the interest of the reader and the prevailing circumstance, we can only assume that the type of newspaper is biased towards such reports and that the investor too is biased and love reading similar reports.

According to confirmation bias, individuals are drawn to information that substantiates their existing perceptions. It is just similar when a person prefers watching news from a TV channel that represents his/her political views while evading those that feature commentators of divergent opinions. Similarly, people behave in the like manner concerning their financial issues. Entrepreneurs believe in the market conditions will make them walk toward information sources that validate such a belief.

While it is acceptable to attach an emphasis to the consequences of our aspirations, for example, investing heavily in the stock of the firm you’re working for, it poses significant risks when it comes to diversification. If you should overcome confirmation bias, stress must be levied on obtaining information from various.

The Third Colleague: Depicting Recency Bias

Recency bias is a cognitive intrusion that encourages to perceive the most recent information as more relevant compared to the old knowledge. However, this may not be necessarily true. People base their investment decisions on how the market has been recently performing. The exact state is seen on the third respondent whose investment decisions in the Omega Corporation are drawn from the current state of the company and industry. She denotes that from the decline of the industry to capitalize on her investments since she presumes that case to remain constant for some time.

Most entrepreneurs have the inclination to follow investment performance by investing more in the industry when it is peaking and just about to reverse. Given that the investment has been picking up recently, investors anticipate that to remain the case. However, based on the behavioral theory, it would be wrong for her to rely on this approach to make financial decisions. In most circumstances, people do extrapolate from recent performance and employ them as a signal of future performance which is very wrong. Consequently, entrepreneurs fall into the ploy of over-purchasing the now outperforming asset and under-own the now drifting asset.

Behavioral Finance Dissertation
Behavioral Finance Dissertation

Behavioral Finance and Investments

Siosan’s utility function. Contrasted with that assumed in traditional finance theory

Traditional finance posits that humans are risk-averse, they love greater certainty than limited certainty and have a perfect utility function. Conversely, behavioral theorists assume that people display multiple characteristics and while they may be risk-averse, they may also be risk-seeking, risk-neutral, or any blend of the three. Depending on how things present themselves influences decision making.

The utility function measures an individual’s preferences over a set of products, measured in units referred to as utils. Utils exemplify the level of satisfaction of a consumer from choosing a specific type or number of products. Traditional finance is built on the utility theory with an assumption of diminishing marginal return. On the other hand, Behavioral theorists assume that human beings don’t always act in their best financial interests.

Appropriate in this case study, the utility function specifies the satisfaction of an investor out of all possible combinations. For example, an investment with low risk and high return has a bigger utility than that with high risk and low gain. This kind of function represents both their welfare along with their preferences. Violet expresses utility function that follows the behavioral approach. She wants to spend more. However, she’s quite unaware of the circumstances of tomorrow reflected in her limited investments. Under a traditional approach, Violet would either invest or not invest at all. It would be that she has knowledge of the future market or she does not, and if she lacks, her utility function would be concave. She would spend less just to avoid the risks in the future.

Similarly, she purchases expensive goods like cars and takes vacations for her satisfaction although, she feels reluctant to incur debts. This is opposed to traditional finance that assumes a diminishing marginal utility; Violet proposes utility function that will always satisfy her interests and won’t diminish. Violet expresses some mix of traditional and behavioral approach in some part, and traditional finance is reflected in the way she detests debts. Albeit, she does little to avert those debts, thus in part demonstrating a behavioral approach.

Siosian’s Behavioral Biases and how a rational economic individual in traditional finance would behave differently concerning each bias

Various cognitive predispositions cause several behavioral biases or under-saving inclinations. This is according to the perception by behavioral scientists who present several biases that emanate from such predispositions by grouping them into three categories. Such include preference biases, perceptions of prospects, perceptions on how to make decisions bearing in mind the rest of variables, and price perceptions. The typical behavioral bias presented in this case is the preference bias, and it manifests itself in the form of the self-control, loss aversion, and anticipatory utility.

Costly self-control bias- Living for today

Behaviorists propose that many people struggle with self-control in various fields. It may present itself through over-eating, under-saving, or over-snoozing, what we can call as “living for today”. Approaches to costly self-control also suggest that such people will value commitment such that they will choose, and even pay, to limit their future decision in some way, in an attempt to discourage their future over-consumption predilections.

However, in this case, study, Violet fits this model of costly self-control bias. We find that she engages in costly endeavors like buying expensive cars and paying for expensive meals in upscale vacation resorts. She does this at the expense of investing. In fact, she would do all the best she can to live a luxurious life while doing little on her mortgage and other investments. Her approach is behavioral and contrary to how traditional theorists would behave since they would fear the risks of tomorrow and would spend less on consumption and be concerned about the future.

Loss Aversion

The bias is comparative to some reference point like current consumption, or friends’ consumption. Loss aversion may also be seen as a potential threat to consumers leveraging their savings rates. People fear more to invest in their view of avoiding losses (Thaler, Richard, and Shlomo 164-187).

Loss aversion occurs when people easily notice the reduction in investment portfolio more than how they view gains, and this may be even when the profits are greater. They frequently get upset when they lose money during the market recession such that they remember those losses forever, but they would hardly remember the time they made 40-percent increase, just the time they lost 30-percent. We can state that Violet has an outspoken loss aversion bias when she says she detests making losses. Given that she has very little investment but high expenditure, this might be the reason why she rarely invests. Her approach reflects a traditional finance theory that assumes people are risk-averse.

Siosian’s Retirement Portfolio and Justification

Violet’s retirement portfolio is such that she maintains a minimal retirement plan where she deposits half the sum of money coming from her annual bonuses and none-salary incomes. On the other, we notice that she runs a very small mortgage and limited investments that can sustain her. Basing on such decisions, her retirement portfolio is so inefficient.

The Social Security Administration posits that on average, a 65-year pensioner can expect to stay for the next 18–20½ years after quitting the job (Benz par 3). Nonetheless, health advancements now make people stay for more years, and it would be advisable that you schedule a retirement portfolio of 30 or more years, and in such a case, the retirement saving plan becomes so essential. Rather than just depositing money in the portfolio, it should be used in investment opportunities to generate more wealth for old age. The objective is remaining invested—and that implies having some part of the money assigned to stocks, but in the right standing with other investments.

The objective of investing retirement portfolio is to generate a mix of investments that merge to preserve capital, create income, and expand. Such a combination of stock, bond and cash investments must be in line with age, income, financial needs, time, and risk. For this reason, we can say Violet’s retirement portfolio is very weak and inappropriate (Williams par 6).

Behavioral Corporate Finance

MEMO

TO: CFO

FROM:

DATE: 28/04/2019

RE: Recent Behavioral Finance Literature dealing with the Board of Directors.

We can study behavioral finance featuring the panel of executives under the concept of corporate governance ((Shivdasani, Anil, and Marc Zenner). Management of financial institutions has taken a different approach given the attrition of the significance of corporate governance in guiding financial decisions. Albeit, this is very recent studied by contemporary economists who assert the role of the board of governors in guiding the company’s value creation and improved financial performance particularly during this onset of consistent corporate flaws. Many companies have since collapsed, examples of Lehman Brothers, Rank Xerox, and Enron just to name a few, all blamed the faulty board of governors (Shivdasani, Anil, and David Yermack).

We have several lessons to learn from this shrinking–specifically–there is one lesson that stands out clear–the role of corporate governance in determining its capacity to contest positively particularly in stormy environmental conditions where others strive hard to exits.

Contemporary literature on behavioral finance vis-à-vis corporate governance emanates from Adolph, Berle and Means (23) study where they assert that, in reality, managers of companies sought their interest at the expense of the shareholders’ interests.  Their investigation stressed the need for an effective plan to help aid in mitigating the conflict of interests between company owners and managers. Therefore, while the concept of corporate governance might appear new, it addresses typical concerns present since time long (Ayuso, Silvia, and Argandoña 2-19).

Many countries, corporations, and agencies across the globe have started to respond to the corporate flaws by initiating a series of legislation and guidelines that guide decisions of the board of governors in financial implications. Such rules are referred to as the codes of best practices. These legislations guide the behavior and structure of the board of directors while doing their monitory and supervisory duties (Shivdasani, Anil, and David Yermack).

Such codes, though, issued in different regions, they have similar peculiarities regarding corporate culture and general corporate environment, and alignment of the interest of parties (Shareholders and Management). Corporate governance codification of governance aims at mitigating the corresponding deficiencies in or lack of appropriate shareholders shields (Shivdasani, Anil, and David Yermack).

Your Future and Behavioral Finance Post 2008

Behavioral Finance Lessons during and after the Great Recession

Several themes emerge drawing from the issues aired by Stephanie pertaining behavioral finance during and after the great recession. While the economic downturn attracted several consequences on the corporate world, I believe the corporate directors and other stakeholders had the mandate to prevent its occurrence, and correspondingly, they can stop the reoccurrence of the same by studying behavioral finance theories. The recession affected the entire globe since businesses collapsed, and many people lost jobs and houses. However, I believe that if financial behaviorist can avoid a repeat of the 2008 great recession, they should derive from behavioral finance theories, Shefrin and Staman reports this in their book, ‘Behavioral Finance in the Financial Crisis’.

Several factors drew the crisis, and such factors persist that perpetuate the current crisis. They include; a weak government regulation, investment banks that exceedingly leverage debts, and strained homeowners’ finances. We can explain the consequences of 2008 crisis from a financial theory basis. While traditional economics base their assumptions of rationality, they assert that people make rational economic choices as they try to maximize their earnings. On the contrary, behavioral economists assume that people make their financial selections based on their emotions psychological conditions, as well as on cognitive errors.

The 2008 crisis is best explained by the principles of behavioral economics. Here, we find a correlation of the crisis with the overly optimistic lending behaviors of people since such is connected to the stock market fluctuations even as witnessed currently. Psychologists have effectively documented the propensity of people to perceive the through rose-tinted lenses, often referred to as the optimism bias.

Much of the 2008 crisis revolved around financial psychology. We can study psychology as part of the behavioral finance theory. In essence, it incorporates aspects like overconfidence, perception and cognition, aspirations, emotions, and culture (Morgenson, Gretchen and Joshua Rosner).

Overconfidence– Behavioral economists had warned of the inhibiting economic crisis. While banks, businesses, and many corporations received such warnings, many were overconfident in their investments. Overconfidence Before the great 2008 recession, economists warned that the economy was going under. Entrepreneurs were such overconfident such that they hardly analyzed the risk of holding such huge portfolios in mortgage-backed securities, provided the threat of being in a bubble. Most of the homeowners took out loans just to satisfy the American dream — they purchased during a bubble overconfident that housing prices would skyrocket and remain persistent.

However, an increase in the housing market, and the stock market, only works to raise people’s overconfidence since they would ascribe the gains or losses they achieve as a result of their proficiency in finance, although, it results from market moods.

Recency bias was one implication that cultivated the crisis. That’s because entrepreneurs make choices based on the most recent information. Decisions may be constructed on the very latest feedback. Although, such information may not be primarily relevant. During the time, investors overreacted because of the congress’s finance rescue project.

Similarly, people’s emotions such as anger, fear, and sadness influence the type of decisions made, including economic choices. More fearful people become risk-averse, but more angry people become more enthusiastic to incur risks, even financial risks. As for the economic downturn, people had others in mind to accuse of the financial crisis. Take the example of Wall Street banks that became so angry such that they easily took the financial risk to punish the offenders.

Behavioral economists assume that the kind of financial errors made aren’t haphazard, and the choice made too aren’t fundamentally rational. Rather, they are built on psychological conditions such as cognitive errors and biases.

In our attempts to evade the similar crisis in our market, we can learn a lot from the economic downturn of 20008 and the related occurrences of the past. For instance, the 1974-75 economic recession almost resembled the 2007-2009 crisis. On the same note, the twin Reagan-era recessions of the 1980s had profound consequences such as joblessness and a subsequent S&L and sovereign debt crunch. The 1990s foreign currency crisis mandated an immediate discarding of the Long-Term Capital Management without interfering with the worldwide economic system. Just like Lipsky reports, the 2008 housing bubble was a consequence of a simmering stock market.

Hindsight bias wrongly predisposes us to imagine we can see and analyze the future crises pretty well the way we do the previous and establish strategies that would impede future crises. However, we are limited to devise policies that can avert future crises should we even be able to identify them since those who would lose are in our paths standing against us. No doubt restraining bank leverage would do some good; nonetheless, bankers have the smack to strangle it. Consequently, we have a few decision left–our psychological fallibilities. Assessing our psychological biases will work a great deal in averting and mitigating some crises.

Conclusion

From the discussion above, behavioral finance case studies focus on determining the clear-cut direction to which various market forces—such as rational analysis of organization-specific and macroeconomic basics; cultural, human and social psychology trends—affect investors and managers expectations and define their level of confidence.

Works Cited

Adolph, Berle, and Gardiner Means. The Modern Corporation and Private Property. New York, NY, Macmillan, 1932.

Allais, M. “Le Comportement De L’homme Rationnel Devant Le Risque: Critique Des Postulats Et Axiomes De L’ecole Americaine.” Econometrica, vol 21, no. 4, 1953, p. 503. JSTOR.

Ayuso, Silvia, and Antonio Argandoña. “Responsible Corporate Governance: Towards A Stakeholder Board of Directors?” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009, p.2-19. Elsevier BV.

Benz, C. “The Bucket Investor’s Guide to Setting Asset Allocation for Retirement.” News.Morningstar.Com, 2016, par 3.

Ising, Alexander. “Pompian, M. (2006): Behavioral Finance And Wealth Management – How To Build Optimal Portfolios That Account For Investor Biases.” Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, vol 21, no. 4, 2007, pp. 491-492. Springer Nature.

Lipsky, J. Overcoming the Great Recession An Address to the Japan National Press Club, Remarks by John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, at the Japan National Press Club, Tokyo, May 18, 2009. Tokyo: Japan National Press Club, 2009.

Morgenson, Gretchen, and Joshua Rosner. Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, And Corruption Led To Economic Armageddon. New York, New York, St. Martin’s Griffin, 2012.

Shefrin Hersh, &Meir Statman. Behavioral Finance in the Financial Crisis: Market Efficiency, Minsky, and Keynes. Santa Clara: Santa Clara University, 2011.

Shiller, Robert J. “Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion.” Financial Analysts Journal, vol 58, no. 3, 2002, pp. 18-26. CFA Institute.

Shivdasani, Anil, and David Yermack. “CEO Involvement in the Selection Of New Board Members: An Empirical Analysis.” The Journal of Finance, vol 54, no. 5, 1999, pp. 1829-1853. Wiley-Blackwell.

Shivdasani, Anil, and Marc Zenner. “Best Practices In Corporate Governance: What Two Decades Of Research Reveals.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, vol 16, no. 2-3, 2004, pp. 29-41. Wiley-Blackwell.

Thaler, Richard H., and Shlomo Benartzi. “Save More Tomorrow™: Using Behavioral Economics To Increase Employee Saving.” Journal of Political Economy, vol 112, no. S1, 2004, pp. S164-S187. University Of Chicago Press.

Williams, Rob. “Plan, Allocate and Distribute: Structuring Your Retirement Portfolio for Your Income Needs.” Par 6. Schwab Brokerage, 2017.

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Econometrics of France – General overview of the economy, identifying the main aggregate demand components that drive GDP growth

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Econometrics

Econometrics of France – General overview of the economy, identifying the main aggregate demand components that drive GDP growth

Econometrics – France is acknowledged due to its efforts in fighting poverty and improving employment among the citizens (Ciccone & Jarociński, 2010). The country is comprised of many sectors which work collaboratively to provide services and products to her citizens (Facchini & Melki, 2013). The country has been a member of IBRD since 1945 and was among the first country to receive their loan. The country has a population of over 66.8 million people as per the 2015 report. In overall, the country’s GDP was $2.4 trillion in 2015, which the country reported that it was growing at an annual rate of 1.2%.

Analyzing key econometrics such as GDP may not generally be the most pertinent synopsis of accumulated monetary execution for all economies, particularly when generation happens to the detriment of devouring capital stock (Ciccone & Jarociński, 2010). While GDP gauges in light of the generation approach are for the most part more dependable than assessments incorporated from the pay or consumption side, distinctive nations utilize diverse definitions, techniques, and reporting guidelines (UKDS, 2016). World Bank staff survey the nature of national records information and now and then make acclimation to enhance consistency with worldwide rules. All things considered, noteworthy disparities stay between universal guidelines and real practice (Sly & Weber, 2016).

Numerous measurable workplaces, particularly those in creating nations, confront extreme confinements in the assets, time, preparing, and spending plans required to deliver solid and far reaching arrangement of national records insights. Among the challenges confronted by compilers of national records is the degree of unreported financial action in the casual or optional economy. In creating nations a huge share of farming yield is either not traded (on the grounds that it is expended inside the family unit) or not traded for cash (Sly & Weber, 2016).

Private usage has usually been the driver of money related improvement in France and it coordinated the impact of the fiscal crisis in 2009. Regardless, in 2012, private use contracted unprecedented for over two decades in the aftermath of the crisis, amidst purchaser assurance levels that had debilitated and direct money related improvement rates (Facchini & Melki, 2013; Ciccone & Jarociński, 2010). After government use, which has remained by and large stable in the earlier decade, wander is the greatest portion of France’s budgetary advancement.

Econometrics theory was the GDP portion that was hit the hardest by the fiscal crisis in France and changed wander dove 9% in 2009. Taking after a ricochet back to 1.9% advancement in 2010, hypothesis has lamented starting now and into the foreseeable future and it contracted 0.8% in 2013. Moreover, France is a net shipper, in any case, the outside division littly affects the economy (Ciccone & Jarociński, 2010).

Quickly, organizations are the guideline benefactor to France’s economy, with more than 70% of GDP originating from this section. Immense subdivisions of organizations join the sparing cash and budgetary, security and tourism parts. Creating speaks to somewhat more than 10% of France’s GDP and France is an overall pioneer in the avionics, auto and lavishness stock undertakings (Ciccone & Jarociński, 2010). Disregarding the way that agriculture speaks to around 2% of French GDP, it is seen as a fundamental industry in France and is frequently the beneficiary of government gifts or protectionist plans (Facchini & Melki, 2013).

Econometrics – How well the country has managed to achieve the four macroeconomic objectives of high and stable economic growth, low unemployment, low inflation and avoidance of large balance of trade deficit.

There is a run of the mill see, as regularly as could be expected under the circumstances watched or reported by different economists is that France has a unique approach to her economy and operations. In fact, France is delineated as a something close to a revolt economy, where institutions and different staffs are in frequent strikes especially on matters that affect them collectively (Ciccone & Jarociński, 2010).

Like most myths, the intellectual economy myth – , in light of current conditions, executed by people with a grievance, or by people who have visited the country due to either economic interest or their personal interests. Different economic overviews or rather arguments have come up and each shows different result from the previous For each one of its deficiencies – and its qualities – however, all the economists tend to concur that France economy is healthy and well performing above average especially when compared with the G20 terms (UKDS, 2016).

Changing France is to an unprecedented degree troublesome to the time when some are imparting that nothing not another French resistance is required. According to a 2013 econometrics report by IMF, Hollande government was aiming to to cut down different demands by the French economy (Facchini & Melki, 2013); however this was qualified by a notice that more should be done to cut open spending, instead of raise responsibilities. Hollande has vowed to go basic on costs, to forsake putting any further un-convincing weight on French industry (Sly & Weber, 2016).

The failure of changing the current situation in France, has become one of the primary challenge that is undermining the country from attaining effective budgetting (Facchini & Melki, 2013); However, the approach that the government have left many economists talking, for instance, a 2013 report argued the following statements in regard to the France government.  

a) The working hours in most businesses located in France are mostly shorter than the time that European countries work. For instance, when in Germany the average working hours per year are 1904 while in France they are 1679.

b) Most employees in France retire earlier than employees in Germany, the typical retirement age in Germany is 62.3 while in France it is 60.3 and 64 in the United Kingdom.

c) In France, the employees take many events, and holidays off work than employees in Germany and UK do, specifically they take 7 days more than Germans do and 36 days more than British employees do. However, despite all the fact, the France economy remains competitive (UKDS, 2016).

One of the fundamental issues identified with France’s work markets is unmistakable and interminable business district that affiliations end up in when they endeavor to end a man from staff. Many say the fear of putting in two years in a business tribunal is a colossal execute for all the more little affiliations, who are in this way more slanted to spread brief contracts instead of persevering ones. While attempting to settle this Hollander will ensure to past what many would consider workable for a laborer to hold up a disagreeing of out of line dismissal, which starting now remains at two years after they were surrendered.

In an offer to urge boss to contract more staff, Hollande game-plans to offer a “securing prize” to self-representing endeavors. The course of action is to give some place among 1,000 euro and 2,000 euro for every power who is chosen with a remuneration of up to 1.3 times the national scarcest wage. The show is kick-start shrinking by adjusting the gathering coordinated wander holds commitment costs that may startle away executives, with Hollande’s party as to it to be much speedier than changing France’s social obligation laws for low paid labourers (Sly & Weber, 2016).

The report released by the business serve in France exhibited that the strategy approaches will target low-talented authorities, and will especially focus on change divisions, for instance, mechanized and environment. The spending strategy for plan has been connected by 80 million euro in 2016.

The present year’s measures will cost €2 billion, which the mister of reserve said would be “reimbursed in full” by meander holds from elsewhere. Hollande ensured that the measures would not be financed by cost rises.

A blend of fitting optional measures and altered stabilizers has padded the effect of the emergency. The meander force diminishment presented in the 2010 spending course of action is comparably welcome, yet extra spending ought to now be confronted. Laying out and plainly passing on a significant multiyear leave system is a need. The required solidifying addresses a chance to re-adjust open funds by cutting wasteful spending, developing legacy, property and carbon strengths and progress changing the favourable circumstances framework.

Identify and critically analyse 3 economic/political/demographic trends (Econometrics) that the country is experiencing and what the implications of these trends could be in the future.

Demographic trends in France

In 2030, the number of inhabitants in France will achieve 67.9 million, an expansion of 5.8% from 2015 (UKDS, 2016). Moderately high, yet declining, birth and ripeness rates, close by positive net movement, imply that France’s populace will build speedier and age slower than most nations in Western Europe in 2015-2030. France is a standout amongst the most urbanized nations in Western Europe and this will keep on being the situation in 2030 when 91.8% of its aggregate populace will be comprised of urban occupants.

The long haul steadiness of richness and birth rates (right around 800,000 yearly births, regardless of slight falls in 2011 and 2012) implies that the base of the French populace pyramid is still very expansive (Baltagi, 2011)While characteristic increment is still unmistakably positive, the maturing procedure is reflected in a rising number of yearly passing’s  as the populace with the most astounding dangers of biting the dust becomes bigger.

The diminishing in first social unions is measured by the entire of rates (total first marriage rate) or the general probability of first marriage. Some place around 1972 and 2012, the total first marriage rate tumbled from 91.7 to 46.6 first social unions for each 100 men and from 94.8 to 47.5 first social unions for every 100 women (Baltagi, 2011). Probability data show a strong decrease in the degree of social unions between never-married individuals up to age 50: it tumbled from 90 first social unions for each 100 never married men in 1972 to 53.5 in 2012, and from 93.4 first social unions for every 100 never-married women to 56.3 for that years

  1. (i) Estimate the consumption function for your chosen country and comment on your results

Yt = a + bXt

            Where Yt is aggregate consumption of the country in year t;

                        Xt is aggregate income (GDP) of the country in year t;

                        a is the linear intercept and b is the slope coefficient

[Note   Aggregate Consumption (Y) = GC + PC (government consumption expenditure plus Household consumption expenditure) (Year 2015)

Y = 23.9 + 07

    = 24.6

(ii) Write the estimated regression equation and comment on the results of the regression analysis

Taking values from the graph, we make a table consisting values of the recent 5 years (Excel Sheet below)

Econometrics Data
Econometrics Data

Use the formula

Where a=a and b = b

a = -138.67

b =-515.123n

Insert the values in the equation

            Yt = -138.67  – 515.123 Xt

            (iii) Calculate the confidence interval for b at 95% confidence interval. 

-512 * (1 – 0.95)

CI = 25.6

            (iv) Test the statistical significance of b

                        Exposes the error index

                        CI – Y

                        25.6 – 24.6

            = 1.0

            (v) Test the statistical significance of the model

The values are close to the mean of X have less leverages that outliers towards the edges.

(vi) Identify whether the error terms of the model are autocorrelated and/or heteroskedastic.

The error was auto-correlated, with 1.00 error index, which was explained by the value estimation and rounding off

References

Baltagi, B. (2011). Econometrics (1st ed.). Berlin: Springer.

Ciccone, A. & Jarociński, M. (2010). Econometrics & Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics2(4), 222-246.

Facchini, F. & Melki, M. (2013). Efficient government size: France in the 20th century. EconometricsEuropean Journal Of Political Economy31, 1-14.

Sly, N. & Weber, C. (2016). Bilateral Tax Treaties, Econometrics and GDP Co-movement. Review Of International Economics.

UKDS,. (2016). Econometrics UKDS. Stat Metadata Viewer

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Psychological Testing Research Paper

Measurement is a very critical aspect of any psychology topic or basically, in all psychology sub- areas. Every psychologist is usually concerned with measuring the children`s intelligence, creativity and also in measuring their moral development. The psychological tests are used to help the clients learn what careers are best for them. This is based on the interests and the abilities of the clients. Similarly, in this course, description of how learning occurred and how learning can be facilitated in the near future. Therefore, psychological testing is the use of psychological tests, which are ideally designed to be an objective and the standardized measure of a sample of behavior (Garber and Simon, 2017).

Psychological assessment is the main process of testing that makes use of a combination of techniques to help realize some given hypothesis about a person and their behavior, personality, and capabilities. From the description of psychological assessment, it has been defined as an act of performing a psychological battery on an individual. It is also the process of psychological testing (Garber and Simon, 2017). This research paper will, therefore, address different types of psychological tests, various theories in psychological tests and also a variety of standardized tests of intelligence, personality, achievement, interest, neuropsychology and several other areas of psychological testing as described in the Course description.

Psychological Testing Principles

Emphasizes the principles by which psychological tests are conducted is quite important. There are several contradictions when it comes to the use of psychological tests. Psychological tests should be well examined to ensure that, there is valid, appropriate and also the fair use of psychological tests.

There are key concepts that are discussed in this research paper and these include studying the importance of psychological testing (Garber and Simon, 2017). Psychological testing allows researchers and psychologists to make concrete decisions about people, early school placement, military job selections and also in other fields like college entry behavior. Secondly, based on our course teachings, psychological testing allows us to vividly describe and also understand an individual`s real behavior (Garber and Simon, 2017). Below are several other additional reasons for carrying out psychological testing/ assessment;

-It is a measure of a person`s personal attributes- Psychological testing helps the learner to understand an individual`s behavior. Understanding a person`s behavior is quite important since it helps researchers and learners realize/ judge a person based on his/ her way of behaving.

Psychological Testing
Psychological Testing

It is a way of measuring performance- Individual performance is quite important. People would often need to be assessed how they have performed within a specified period of time. Therefore, in this case, psychological testing would help us realize a persons performance in his or her field of specialty. This is one of the key reasons why psychological testing was devised and should be embraced.

  • Saves time. It is a time-saving means of evaluating an individual`s performance in a certain field.
  • It is, of course, the most economical means of achieving a person`s performance.
  • Similarly, the process of psychological testing is basically scientific. Therefore, testing is expected to have the best results in any experiment.

There are basic psychological testing terms that have been explored in this course. As part of the course objectives, it is important to define, describe and also identify these basic testing terms (Garber and Simon, 2017). Such terms include theory, assessment, attitude, personality, measurement, validity, reliability, operational definitions, statistics, average, central tendency, correlation, bias, battery, criterion, decile, standardization, derived score, Level of significance, sample, prediction, randomness, measurement scale, stratification, norms, distracters and factor.

As part of this research paper, definitions of some of these terminologies will be analyzed. For instance; -Theory- theory refers to an idea that is used to account for or even justify a psychological situation.

  • Sample- it refers to a set of collected data that is used for psychological testing and analysis.
  • Measurement scale- it is the basis that is basically used for the psychological tests.

This research paper also addresses uses and various varieties of the personality tests. The main aim of this is to determine which tool is the best for predicting and also measuring the behavior of an individual/ a person (Rappaport et al, 2017). Establishing the validity of the personality tests is again quite important in psychology. Personality tests are an example of psychological tests that have been handled in this course. It is usually used to measure and also evaluate the behavior of a person in school and several other social places. This test basically identifies differences in personality between persons who are being subjected to the similar test.

Personal tests are basically the best psychological tests to use according to a number of psychological researchers. Again in this research paper, the question, “which is a better tool to predict the behavior of an individual, is it the personality test or the projective test?” This is one research problems that have been identified in the course. The research problem can, therefore, be reviewed (Garfinkle and Richardson, 2018). This can be reviewed in terms of whether the personality tests, observation and also the inventories are more reliable and also predictive in determining the behavior of a person.

The hypothesis for this research paper is based on using personality inventories and the projective tests and determining which is better in assessing of a person`s behavior. Using research design and the descriptive correlational methodology is the best approach for the researcher. Descriptive psychological tests are therefore tools that are used to measure and predict the behavior of humanity (Garfinkle and Richardson, 2018). However, both personality tests and the projective tests are used to assess the personalities of individuals in different environments, for instance, school and community. Psychological tests can be applied in various instances. For example, organizations worldwide are busy striving to be successful in the best ways possible.

Aptitude testing is another form of testing that has been described in the course. It is the second widely used form of psychological test after the personality test. It can interchangeably be used with the term ability. The concept of ability in the aptitude test can be described as a general character of an individual that can ideally facilitate the learning of the various skills.

From aptitude definition, it is then easier to state that, psychological tests are basically standardized measures of a small sample of an individual`s behavior (Garfinkle and Richardson, 2018). For instance, a chemist can infer the characteristics of a large compound by only testing a few cubic centimeters of a liquid. Similarly, quality engineers only test a small sample of the finished products and not all of them. The same concept is applied by psychologists in coping with test results. They only base their work on a small sample to come up with results for a larger population.

In aptitude testing, there is a need to establish the difference between aptitudes and the abilities. Ability tests are basically given with an option of giving a dire prediction about a person`s future success in his or field of work, mostly occupational activity or even group of activities. However, it’s possible to use the term aptitude in place of the term, ability (Garfinkle and Richardson, 2018). There are several ways of describing aptitude tests. These include being described in the mode in which they are being presented and also be grouped based on their content.

Conclusion

Psychological testing and assessment are conducted for a number of reasons. For instance;

  • Detection of specific behavior- psychological tests are basically used to determine the abilities of a person.
  • Individual differences- Psychological tests are again used to determine the individual differences. This ideally shows the difference in a person`s ability. The person`s performance is also determined through psychological testing (Rappaport et al, 2017).
  • To diagnose by the psychological test- These tests are also used in clinical psychology. This can be used to diagnose mental disorders among individuals.
  • Legal classification- Psychological tests basically help researchers to identify people into different categories. These categories can be normal and abnormal, criminal and innocent, intellectual and mentally disabled and lastly, the able and the disabled.
  • Promoting Self -understanding- this is another function that psychological testing does. It, therefore, provides standardized knowledge about the person`s behavior, aptitudes and also capabilities.
  • Program evaluation- Psychological testing can be used for such measures as program evaluation (Kaplan and Saccuzzo, 2017).
  • Scientific research- psychological researchers use psychological testing for the purpose of research. It, therefore, provides knowledge about the person`s mental level (Chukhraiev, 2017).
  • Military selection- Psychological testing is used during military selection.

References

Chukhraiev, N., Zukow, W., Chukhraieva, E., & Unichenko, A. (2017). Integrative approach to reduction of excess weight. Journal of Physical Education and Sport17(2), 563.

Garber, B. D., & Simon, R. A. (2017). Individual Adult Psychometric Testing and Child Custody Evaluations: If the Shoe Doesn’t Fit, Don’t Wear It. J. Am. Acad. Matrimonial Law.30, 325.

Garfinkle, M. S., & Richardson, S. L. (2018). Psychological Testing for Psychoanalysis. Psychoanalytic Trends in Theory and Practice: The Second Century of the Talking Cure, 269.

Kaplan, R. M., & Saccuzzo, D. P. (2017). Psychological testing: Principles, applications, and issues. Nelson Education.

Rappaport, S. R., Gould, J., & Dale, M. D. (2017). Psychological Testing Can Be of Significant Value in Child Custody Evaluations: Don’t Buy the Anti-Testing, Anti-Individual, Pro-Family Systems Woozle. J. Am. Acad. Matrimonial Law.30, 405.

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Approaches for Research Dissertations

Qualitative or Quantitative?

Approaches for all research, whether qualitative or quantitative, requires interpretation and contextualization by the researcher. Narrative statements or a series of figures will not give the answer to the research question or statement (hypothesis) by themselves.

Therefore it is important to choose a research approach (or approaches) that will give the correct ‘type’ of data to answer your research question.

A number of approaches are available when gathering data, but these don’t have to be used in isolation. For instance a focus group can elicit viewpoints which may need exploring further will a larger research cohort using a closed question survey. For this reason, it is important to plan your approach thoroughly before you start, to ensure your research question can be answered and to let your respondees know what is expected of them.

Don’t forget that whichever research method is chosen, it needs to have a robust ethics form that has been approved before contacting participants and starting to gather data.

Approaches that can be used:

Focus groups

This is where a group of people discuss a particular problem, facilitated by the researcher. The group interaction and the sharing of ideas not only means that rich and meaningful data can be pulled out from the focus group but also during the course of the focus groups, ideas can be co-constructed between participants which can be used to further the depth of research.

Structured interviews

When using structured interviews, the questions are written beforehand and are strictly adhered to regardless of the answer.

Semi-structured interviews

Whilst pre written questions are also used in semi structured interviews, this approach allows for the researcher to spontaneously build on answers given, allowing the base question to be answered but also elaborating on any areas which may impact on the research answer.

Survey

Surveys are an excellent way to reach a large number of people. This approach works if there is a clear idea of the questions that will elicit research to support the hypothesis. A mix of qualitative (open text fields) or quantitative (set questions and answers) can be used.

Case study

This approach is valuable when more in depth research is required and allows the researcher to investigate the issues in the place or time that they occur. The researcher will observe the participant and often will have follow up meetings to clarify or build on the information gained.

Narrative enquiry

This method works on the ideology that it is less important what is said, then how it is said. The story a participant will tell may not be entirely factual but it will be their perception of what happened which gives greater in sight. This approach is linked to discourse analysis methodology.

Appreciative enquiry (AI)

AI shifts the traditional focus of looking for the negative impacts of an issue and instead approaches the issue from a positive perspective.

Ethnographic

Ethnographical methodology requires the researcher to embed themselves in the participatory groups own setting, for a sustained time in order to observe, talk and learn from participants.

There are a number of branches from the ethnographic methodology:

Auto ethnographic

More than just an autobiographical account, an auto-ethnographic researcher should reflect on events and use these to uncover meanings and feelings that a purely narrative account may miss.

Visual ethnographic

Using video, photos and artefacts as the main source of research data rather than supplementing it.

Netography

Researchers using this methodology are involved and participants or ‘lurkers’ in virtual groups and communities. Ethical issues need to be carefully considered with this approach.

Soft Systems Methodology (SSM)

Instead of studying isolated issues, SSM is a holistic way of looking at and solving problems. These are often presented in mind map formats, making this a good research methodology for visual learners.

Questions to ask before choosing a research approach:

  1. Will we learn more about this topic using quantitative or qualitative approaches?
  2. Which approach will produce more useful knowledge?
  3. Which will do more good?

References

Taken from:  Cousin. Glynis, (2009) Researching Learning in Higher Education. Routledge. UK.

Research Approaches Dissertations
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